Papa John's International, Inc.

DB:PP1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.2b

Papa John's International Valuation

Is PP1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PP1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PP1 (€39) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€137)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PP1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PP1?

Key metric: As PP1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PP1. This is calculated by dividing PP1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PP1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.6x
EarningsUS$94.78m
Market CapUS$1.29b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PP1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PP1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.4x
TIMA ZEAL Network
23x-12.6%€1.1b
TUI1 TUI
8.4x16.1%€4.2b
999 Xiaocaiyuan International Holding
19.3xn/aHK$10.9b
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
31.1x26.6%US$1.3b
PP1 Papa John's International
13.6x9.4%€1.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PP1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the peer average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PP1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PP1 13.6xIndustry Avg. 17.5xNo. of Companies15PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PP1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PP1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PP1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.6x
Fair PE Ratio21.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PP1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PP1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€39.00
€57.91
+48.5%
11.8%€69.61€42.91n/a14
Dec ’25€47.00
€57.00
+21.3%
11.8%€68.52€42.24n/a14
Nov ’25€50.00
€53.47
+6.9%
16.4%€70.13€41.53n/a14
Oct ’25€47.40
€50.02
+5.5%
16.7%€67.95€40.23n/a15
Sep ’25€42.60
€50.02
+17.4%
16.7%€67.95€40.23n/a15
Aug ’25€40.60
€58.74
+44.7%
17.3%€83.25€41.63n/a14
Jul ’25€43.60
€61.78
+41.7%
14.6%€82.81€50.61n/a14
Jun ’25€42.60
€61.78
+45.0%
14.6%€82.81€50.61n/a14
May ’25€57.50
€73.59
+28.0%
10.5%€90.42€55.93n/a15
Apr ’25€61.50
€74.67
+21.4%
9.9%€89.76€60.15n/a13
Mar ’25€64.50
€75.67
+17.3%
10.9%€89.51€59.98n/a14
Feb ’25€68.00
€74.04
+8.9%
11.9%€89.04€59.66n/a15
Jan ’25€69.00
€71.24
+3.2%
12.1%€90.89€59.08n/a16
Dec ’24€59.50
€71.17
+19.6%
12.1%€91.68€59.59€47.0016
Nov ’24€59.50
€83.53
+40.4%
12.8%€107.38€65.93€50.0016
Oct ’24€64.50
€85.65
+32.8%
10.9%€105.83€69.62€47.4015
Sep ’24€69.50
€85.65
+23.2%
10.9%€105.83€69.62€42.6015
Aug ’24€74.00
€81.86
+10.6%
12.2%€102.47€69.22€40.6015
Jul ’24€67.50
€83.92
+24.3%
11.7%€105.60€71.33€43.6015
Jun ’24€65.00
€86.03
+32.4%
10.6%€105.86€71.50€42.6014
May ’24€67.00
€85.82
+28.1%
9.6%€105.27€72.60€57.5014
Apr ’24€67.50
€89.75
+33.0%
7.2%€107.81€79.00€61.5014
Mar ’24€79.00
€90.03
+14.0%
8.6%€109.35€75.42€64.5014
Feb ’24€83.00
€87.85
+5.8%
11.5%€116.38€75.14€68.0015
Jan ’24€77.50
€89.57
+15.6%
12.4%€119.65€75.37€69.0014
Dec ’23€79.50
€94.47
+18.8%
12.8%€126.86€79.91€59.5014

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 20:54
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/09/29
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Papa John's International, Inc. is covered by 29 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Todd BrooksBenchmark Company
Andrew StrelzikBMO Capital Markets Equity Research