Papa John's International Valuation

Is PP1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PP1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PP1 (€47.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€140.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PP1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PP1?

Key metric: As PP1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PP1. This is calculated by dividing PP1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PP1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	17.1x
Earnings	US$94.78m
Market Cap	US$1.62b

PP1 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.7x
PEG Ratio	1.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PP1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PP1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	19.3x
TIMA ZEAL Network	20.3x	-4.5%	€955.1m
TUI1 TUI	7.1x	17.3%	€3.8b
2555 Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial	17x	n/a	HK$14.4b
DMP Domino's Pizza Enterprises	32.6x	19.5%	AU$3.0b
PP1 Papa John's International	17.1x	10.0%	€1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PP1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the peer average (19.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PP1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

11 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

11 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PP1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (17.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PP1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PP1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.1x
Fair PE Ratio	22.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PP1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PP1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	€47.20	€58.32 +23.6%	11.8%	€70.10	€43.21	n/a	14
Nov ’25	€50.00	€53.47 +6.9%	16.4%	€70.13	€41.53	n/a	14
Oct ’25	€47.40	€50.02 +5.5%	16.7%	€67.95	€40.23	n/a	15
Sep ’25	€42.60	€50.02 +17.4%	16.7%	€67.95	€40.23	n/a	15
Aug ’25	€40.60	€58.74 +44.7%	17.3%	€83.25	€41.63	n/a	14
Jul ’25	€43.60	€61.78 +41.7%	14.6%	€82.81	€50.61	n/a	14
Jun ’25	€42.60	€61.78 +45.0%	14.6%	€82.81	€50.61	n/a	14
May ’25	€57.50	€73.59 +28.0%	10.5%	€90.42	€55.93	n/a	15
Apr ’25	€61.50	€74.67 +21.4%	9.9%	€89.76	€60.15	n/a	13
Mar ’25	€64.50	€75.67 +17.3%	10.9%	€89.51	€59.98	n/a	14
Feb ’25	€68.00	€74.04 +8.9%	11.9%	€89.04	€59.66	n/a	15
Jan ’25	€69.00	€71.24 +3.2%	12.1%	€90.89	€59.08	n/a	16
Dec ’24	€59.50	€71.17 +19.6%	12.1%	€91.68	€59.59	n/a	16
Nov ’24	€59.50	€83.53 +40.4%	12.8%	€107.38	€65.93	€50.00	16
Oct ’24	€64.50	€85.65 +32.8%	10.9%	€105.83	€69.62	€47.40	15
Sep ’24	€69.50	€85.65 +23.2%	10.9%	€105.83	€69.62	€42.60	15
Aug ’24	€74.00	€81.86 +10.6%	12.2%	€102.47	€69.22	€40.60	15
Jul ’24	€67.50	€83.92 +24.3%	11.7%	€105.60	€71.33	€43.60	15
Jun ’24	€65.00	€86.03 +32.4%	10.6%	€105.86	€71.50	€42.60	14
May ’24	€67.00	€85.82 +28.1%	9.6%	€105.27	€72.60	€57.50	14
Apr ’24	€67.50	€89.75 +33.0%	7.2%	€107.81	€79.00	€61.50	14
Mar ’24	€79.00	€90.03 +14.0%	8.6%	€109.35	€75.42	€64.50	14
Feb ’24	€83.00	€87.85 +5.8%	11.5%	€116.38	€75.14	€68.00	15
Jan ’24	€77.50	€89.57 +15.6%	12.4%	€119.65	€75.37	€69.00	14
Dec ’23	€79.50	€94.47 +18.8%	12.8%	€126.86	€79.91	€59.50	14
Nov ’23	€73.50	€107.31 +46.0%	17.5%	€154.90	€80.99	€59.50	15

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.