Marriott International, Inc.

DB:MAQ Stock Report

Market Cap: €75.9b

Marriott International Valuation

Is MAQ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MAQ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MAQ (€270.05) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€329.12)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MAQ is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MAQ?

Key metric: As MAQ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MAQ. This is calculated by dividing MAQ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MAQ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.5x
EarningsUS$2.77b
Market CapUS$79.00b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MAQ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MAQ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.2x
7x17.3%€3.8b
IFA LS Invest
6.6xn/a€296.1m
ABNB Airbnb
46.7x17.9%US$85.8b
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings
52.4x17.6%US$61.7b
MAQ Marriott International
28.5x8.4%€79.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MAQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.5x) compared to the peer average (28.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MAQ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MAQ 28.5xIndustry Avg. 17.3xNo. of Companies18PE01224364860+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MAQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.5x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (17.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MAQ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MAQ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.5x
Fair PE Ratio38x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MAQ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MAQ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€270.05
€251.27
-7.0%
10.8%€311.57€189.98n/a25
Nov ’25€238.15
€233.98
-1.7%
9.5%€277.89€180.63n/a25
Oct ’25€222.20
€219.85
-1.1%
7.4%€247.58€175.56n/a25
Sep ’25€208.65
€221.15
+6.0%
7.2%€248.82€176.44n/a24
Aug ’25€211.00
€227.44
+7.8%
7.4%€254.84€185.34n/a23
Jul ’25€223.95
€231.12
+3.2%
7.1%€259.99€187.04n/a23
Jun ’25€210.85
€227.92
+8.1%
7.1%€256.90€184.82n/a22
May ’25€222.95
€230.08
+3.2%
6.8%€257.21€187.06n/a23
Apr ’25€234.15
€227.00
-3.1%
7.2%€253.72€184.52n/a24
Mar ’25€230.65
€225.43
-2.3%
7.4%€254.43€185.04n/a23
Feb ’25€221.35
€206.72
-6.6%
10.2%€249.02€147.57n/a23
Jan ’25€201.90
€192.79
-4.5%
8.6%€215.46€144.85n/a23
Dec ’24€185.30
€189.22
+2.1%
8.6%€214.18€145.82n/a21
Nov ’24€177.68
€198.04
+11.5%
8.1%€221.86€151.06€238.1522
Oct ’24€188.52
€196.88
+4.4%
7.9%€222.50€151.49€222.2021
Sep ’24€187.30
€188.78
+0.8%
8.5%€211.99€147.47€208.6522
Aug ’24€183.38
€179.91
-1.9%
7.2%€209.42€158.43€211.0020
Jul ’24€166.04
€171.22
+3.1%
5.8%€194.30€154.16€223.9520
Jun ’24€156.02
€174.12
+11.6%
5.6%€197.96€157.07€210.8520
May ’24€150.64
€164.71
+9.3%
5.3%€186.86€153.13€222.9520
Apr ’24€148.34
€165.55
+11.6%
5.2%€187.96€154.04€234.1520
Mar ’24€158.80
€171.77
+8.2%
5.5%€194.32€155.46€230.6519
Feb ’24€159.34
€158.73
-0.4%
6.6%€177.54€140.74€221.3519
Jan ’24€136.86
€162.97
+19.1%
6.3%€178.81€143.99€201.9021
Dec ’23€157.06
€165.93
+5.6%
6.5%€184.02€147.21€185.3020
Nov ’23€161.50
€174.93
+8.3%
6.3%€194.48€156.61€177.6820

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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