MGM China Holdings Limited

DB:M04 Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.5b

MGM China Holdings Valuation

Is M04 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of M04 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: M04 (€1.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€1.8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: M04 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for M04?

Key metric: As M04 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for M04. This is calculated by dividing M04's market cap by their current earnings.
What is M04's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.2x
EarningsHK$4.50b
Market CapHK$36.90b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does M04's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for M04 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.9x
TIMA ZEAL Network
22.1x-12.6%€1.0b
TUI1 TUI
8.5x16.1%€4.3b
IFA LS Invest
6.3xn/a€283.7m
1128 Wynn Macau
10.8x13.0%HK$28.9b
M04 MGM China Holdings
8.2x4.9%€36.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: M04 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the peer average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does M04's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
M04 8.2xIndustry Avg. 17.5xNo. of Companies15PE01224364860+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: M04 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is M04's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

M04 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.2x
Fair PE Ratio23.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: M04 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst M04 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€1.19
€1.81
+52.1%
15.9%€2.36€1.41n/a15
Dec ’25€1.15
€1.86
+62.2%
13.7%€2.34€1.45n/a15
Nov ’25€1.18
€1.89
+59.9%
10.3%€2.28€1.48n/a14
Oct ’25€1.40
€1.93
+37.7%
11.5%€2.21€1.44n/a13
Sep ’25€1.21
€1.96
+62.0%
10.4%€2.22€1.45n/a14
Aug ’25€1.35
€2.01
+48.9%
9.7%€2.24€1.48n/a14
Jul ’25€1.42
€2.10
+47.9%
11.6%€2.37€1.41n/a14
Jun ’25€1.63
€2.02
+23.7%
13.0%€2.35€1.40n/a15
May ’25€1.57
€1.92
+22.5%
12.5%€2.25€1.41n/a15
Apr ’25€1.51
€1.80
+18.9%
10.1%€2.13€1.40n/a16
Mar ’25€1.42
€1.77
+24.7%
10.6%€2.14€1.40n/a16
Feb ’25€1.18
€1.64
+38.9%
13.1%€2.12€1.20n/a15
Jan ’25€1.11
€1.60
+43.8%
13.6%€2.09€1.18n/a15
Dec ’24€1.00
€1.62
+61.7%
13.6%€2.10€1.19€1.1514
Nov ’24€1.13
€1.68
+48.9%
16.9%€2.17€1.18€1.1813
Oct ’24€1.21
€1.67
+37.9%
17.0%€2.15€1.17€1.4013
Sep ’24€1.10
€1.65
+50.4%
20.2%€2.23€1.10€1.2115
Aug ’24€1.19
€1.52
+27.7%
25.8%€2.18€0.67€1.3516
Jul ’24€1.04
€1.56
+50.1%
25.0%€2.22€0.68€1.4216
Jun ’24€0.96
€1.55
+60.6%
22.4%€2.13€0.69€1.6317
May ’24€1.19
€1.47
+23.8%
23.9%€2.09€0.67€1.5716
Apr ’24€1.11
€1.39
+25.3%
21.2%€1.74€0.69€1.5115
Mar ’24€1.21
€1.33
+10.1%
25.4%€1.75€0.57€1.4216
Feb ’24€1.23
€1.10
-10.6%
34.3%€1.60€0.54€1.1816
Jan ’24€1.02
€0.70
-31.1%
25.9%€1.18€0.44€1.1116
Dec ’23€0.72
€0.65
-10.6%
19.7%€0.92€0.44€1.0016

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:34
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

MGM China Holdings Limited is covered by 42 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Phoebe TseBarclays
D. S. KimBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Edwin FanBOCI Research Ltd.