The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

DB:CF2 Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.3b

Cheesecake Factory Valuation

Is CF2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CF2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

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Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: CF2 (€86.12) is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value (€63.42)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: CF2 is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CF2?

Key metric: As CF2 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CF2. This is calculated by dividing CF2's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CF2's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.6x
EarningsUS$178.62m
Market CapUS$5.03b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CF2's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CF2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.9x
TUI1 TUI
5.7x14.06%€3.4b
TIMA ZEAL Network
20.6x16.03%€905.2m
AMR Americana Restaurants International
20.4x7.58%د.إ20.5b
2702 McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan)
29x5.39%JP¥1.1t
CF2 Cheesecake Factory
28.6x19.76%€5.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CF2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the peer average (18.9x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CF2's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CF2 28.6xIndustry Avg. 18.1xNo. of Companies19PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CF2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (17.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CF2's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CF2 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.6x
Fair PE Ratio13.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CF2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CF2 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€86.12
€81.64
-5.20%
13.46%€100.76€51.67n/a15
Sep ’27€92.98
€79.54
-14.46%
11.81%€90.12€51.50n/a15
Aug ’27€89.06
€79.30
-10.96%
10.81%€90.82€52.40n/a15
Jul ’27€70.34
€58.89
-16.28%
11.39%€69.43€43.95n/a16
Jun ’27€55.98
€57.45
+2.63%
10.71%€65.40€43.03n/a17
May ’27€54.00
€56.46
+4.56%
10.91%€64.74€42.60n/a18
Apr ’27€46.78
€55.83
+19.35%
11.45%€65.62€43.17n/a18
Mar ’27€54.16
€54.87
+1.31%
11.45%€64.49€42.43n/a18
Feb ’27€47.99
€50.78
+5.81%
10.45%€59.02€42.16n/a18
Jan ’27€42.42
€50.19
+18.31%
11.13%€59.49€40.80n/a19
Dec ’26€40.24
€51.42
+27.78%
11.33%€60.77€41.67n/a18
Nov ’26€42.09
€51.44
+22.22%
11.97%€62.25€41.50n/a18
Oct ’26€45.68
€56.22
+23.07%
11.95%€63.89€40.03n/a17
Sep ’26€51.72
€57.05
+10.31%
12.01%€64.49€40.41€92.9817
Aug ’26€55.00
€57.34
+4.25%
12.94%€65.69€41.16€89.0617
Jul ’26€52.36
€48.88
-6.64%
13.56%€56.60€34.30€70.3417
Jun ’26€48.24
€48.50
+0.53%
12.90%€58.13€35.23€55.9817
May ’26€43.32
€47.83
+10.41%
12.56%€57.57€35.43€54.0017
Apr ’26€44.60
€51.94
+16.45%
13.20%€61.89€36.95€46.7818
Mar ’26€50.00
€54.36
+8.71%
12.24%€63.89€38.14€54.1618
Feb ’26€54.00
€49.05
-9.17%
14.17%€61.97€35.28€47.9918
Jan ’26€45.80
€46.94
+2.48%
15.09%€56.59€34.53€42.4216
Dec ’25€46.80
€45.24
-3.33%
13.50%€56.12€34.24€40.2416
Nov ’25€42.40
€42.59
+0.44%
11.50%€50.64€33.15€42.0916
Oct ’25€36.20
€36.61
+1.15%
13.40%€45.00€26.10€45.6816
Sep ’25€35.20
€37.12
+5.46%
13.64%€45.76€26.54€51.7216
€79.55
Fair Value
8.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/11 13:08
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/11 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is covered by 39 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
David TarantinoBaird
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays