The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

DB:CF2 Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.5b

Cheesecake Factory Valuation

Is CF2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CF2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CF2 (€48.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€66.21)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CF2 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CF2?

Key metric: As CF2 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CF2. This is calculated by dividing CF2's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CF2's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.1x
EarningsUS$128.31m
Market CapUS$2.57b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CF2's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CF2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.8x
TIMA ZEAL Network
22.4x-12.6%€1.1b
TUI1 TUI
7.9x15.9%€4.0b
IFA LS Invest
6.5xn/a€281.3m
ROO Deliveroo
38.5x41.0%UK£1.9b
CF2 Cheesecake Factory
20.1x15.4%€2.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CF2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.1x) compared to the peer average (18.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CF2's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CF2 20.1xIndustry Avg. 16.9xNo. of Companies17PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CF2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.1x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (16.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CF2's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CF2 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.1x
Fair PE Ratio26.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CF2 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CF2 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€48.20
€48.60
+0.8%
15.1%€62.82€35.76n/a17
Jan ’26€45.80
€46.94
+2.5%
15.1%€56.59€34.53n/a16
Dec ’25€46.80
€45.24
-3.3%
13.5%€56.12€34.24n/a16
Nov ’25€42.40
€42.59
+0.4%
11.5%€50.64€33.15n/a16
Oct ’25€36.20
€36.61
+1.1%
13.4%€45.00€26.10n/a16
Sep ’25€35.20
€37.12
+5.5%
13.6%€45.76€26.54n/a16
Aug ’25€35.00
€37.71
+7.7%
13.5%€46.34€26.87n/a16
Jul ’25€36.80
€36.08
-2.0%
14.4%€46.04€26.70n/a16
Jun ’25€35.20
€36.08
+2.5%
14.4%€46.04€26.70n/a16
May ’25€32.20
€33.62
+4.4%
11.3%€41.02€26.10n/a15
Apr ’25€33.40
€32.66
-2.2%
9.8%€36.58€25.60n/a14
Mar ’25€32.40
€32.89
+1.5%
10.0%€36.91€25.84n/a14
Feb ’25€31.60
€32.07
+1.5%
10.2%€36.93€25.85n/a15
Jan ’25€31.60
€30.60
-3.2%
12.9%€36.36€23.63€45.8015
Dec ’24€28.40
€29.94
+5.4%
10.7%€36.74€23.88€46.8015
Nov ’24€29.20
€32.05
+9.8%
13.3%€40.69€26.50€42.4015
Oct ’24€28.60
€34.27
+19.8%
11.0%€40.67€29.32€36.2013
Sep ’24€29.40
€33.38
+13.5%
10.4%€39.07€28.17€35.2013
Aug ’24€32.80
€32.50
-0.9%
12.8%€42.25€26.97€35.0013
Jul ’24€31.60
€33.09
+4.7%
13.3%€43.10€27.51€36.8012
Jun ’24€29.00
€33.80
+16.5%
13.5%€43.68€27.88€35.2011
May ’24€30.40
€33.83
+11.3%
14.3%€41.65€27.17€32.2011
Apr ’24€32.16
€35.49
+10.4%
12.8%€42.41€27.66€33.4010
Mar ’24€35.01
€35.61
+1.7%
13.5%€43.40€28.30€32.4012
Feb ’24€35.66
€32.27
-9.5%
11.0%€36.88€25.81€31.6012
Jan ’24€29.37
€32.50
+10.7%
12.1%€37.68€24.49€31.6014

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/08 23:09
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/08 00:00
Earnings2024/10/01
Annual Earnings2024/01/02

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is covered by 50 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
David TarantinoBaird
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays