Delivery Hero (XTRA:DHER): Exploring Valuation Following Strong Q4 Growth Outlook and Asian Recovery

Delivery Hero (XTRA:DHER) has drawn attention after signaling that its growth should pick up in the fourth quarter, in large part due to a stronger recovery in its Asian operations. Quarterly results showed a 7% growth in gross merchandise value, suggesting some steadiness in performance as the year moves forward.

See our latest analysis for Delivery Hero.

Despite the buzz around Delivery Hero’s strengthening outlook, the stock’s momentum has been decidedly negative, with a 1-month share price return of -26.6% and total shareholder return for the year down a hefty 54.8%. While the latest quarterly updates reflect some operational stability, investors are still waiting for a turnaround in sentiment and sustained share price recovery.

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The question now is whether Delivery Hero’s recent decline opens up a buying opportunity for value seekers, or if the market has already factored in its future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 47.6% Undervalued

At a last close price of €16.96, Delivery Hero sits well below the most-followed narrative's estimated fair value of €32.37, suggesting sizable upside if expectations play out. This strong gap between market price and projected intrinsic value raises key questions about the factors driving analysts’ projections.

Operational leverage from AI integration and ongoing platform unification, as shown by tech-driven cost reductions (for example, a 9.5% reduction in cost per order after Glovo integration and an 18% increase in deliveries per rider per hour in Korea), is compressing logistics costs and supporting net margin and EBITDA improvement as scale increases.

Read the complete narrative.

Wondering what bold financial levers are powering this dramatic valuation gap? The heart of the narrative: relentless cost efficiencies and a major turnaround in underlying profitability. Want to know the ambitious growth and margin bets that support this outlook? Unlock the full story to see how Delivery Hero’s future could look very different from its recent past.

Result: Fair Value of €32.37 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent regulatory challenges in Europe and currency volatility remain key risks. These factors have the potential to dampen Delivery Hero's improving outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Delivery Hero narrative.

Build Your Own Delivery Hero Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to form your own perspective, you can build your own Delivery Hero narrative in just minutes: Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Delivery Hero.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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