Vistry Group (DB:44B) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 44B when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

44B (€9.85) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€18.26)

44B fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	5/6

44B Stock Overview

Vistry Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a housebuilder in the United Kingdom.

Rewards

Trading at 46% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 6.79% per year

Earnings grew by 230.8% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Vistry Group Competitors

HELMA Eigenheimbau

XTRA:H5E

€155.6m

Traumhaus

XTRA:TRU

€61.6m

Einhell Germany

XTRA:EIN3

€498.2m

Hugo Boss

XTRA:BOSS

€3.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Vistry Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£9.85
52 Week High	UK£14.80
52 Week Low	UK£8.95
Beta	2.35
1 Month Change	-10.46%
3 Month Change	-10.46%
1 Year Change	-30.63%
3 Year Change	-6.26%
5 Year Change	2.20%
Change since IPO	2.61%

Shareholder Returns

	44B	DE Consumer Durables	DE Market
7D	-3.4%	-7.9%	-3.0%
1Y	-30.6%	-34.7%	-25.4%

Return vs Industry: 44B exceeded the German Consumer Durables industry which returned -35% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 44B underperformed the German Market which returned -25.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 44B's price volatile compared to industry and market?
44B volatility
44B Average Weekly Movement	5.1%
Consumer Durables Industry Average Movement	5.7%
Market Average Movement	5.6%
10% most volatile stocks in DE Market	10.2%
10% least volatile stocks in DE Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: 44B is not significantly more volatile than the rest of German stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 44B's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1885	3,117	Greg Fitzgerald	https://www.vistrygroup.co.uk

Vistry Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a housebuilder in the United Kingdom. The company offers one-bedroom to five-bedroom family homes. As of December 31, 2021, it had 42,770 controlled land bank plots and 40,000 strategic land bank plots.

Vistry Group Fundamentals Summary

How do Vistry Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
44B fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£1.76b
Earnings (TTM)	UK£254.13m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£2.36b

6.9x

P/E Ratio

0.7x

P/S Ratio

Is 44B overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
44B income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£2.36b
Cost of Revenue	UK£1.91b
Gross Profit	UK£445.02m
Other Expenses	UK£190.89m
Earnings	UK£254.13m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Sep 08, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.16
Gross Margin	18.86%
Net Profit Margin	10.77%
Debt/Equity Ratio	6.9%

How did 44B perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

10.0%

Current Dividend Yield

52%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 44B undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 44B?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 44B. This is calculated by dividing 44B's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 44B's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£1.76b

44B key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5x
PEG Ratio	1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 44B's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

44B PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 44B vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.4x
H5E HELMA Eigenheimbau	8.3x	14.5%	€155.6m
TRU Traumhaus	9.5x	13.7%	€61.6m
EIN3 Einhell Germany	7.8x	4.8%	€498.2m
BOSS Hugo Boss	20.3x	18.9%	€3.5b
44B Vistry Group	6.9x	6.8%	€1.8b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 44B is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the peer average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 44B's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 44B is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the German Consumer Durables industry average (7.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 44B's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

44B PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.9x
Fair PE Ratio	19x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 44B is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 44B when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 44B (€9.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€18.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 44B is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 44B is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1x)

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Future Growth

How is Vistry Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 16 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

6.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 44B's forecast earnings growth (6.8% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.01%).

Earnings vs Market: 44B's earnings (6.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the German market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 44B's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 44B's revenue (8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (4.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 44B's revenue (8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 44B's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.9%).

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Past Performance

How has Vistry Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

12.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 44B has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 44B's current net profit margins (10.8%) are higher than last year (4.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 44B's earnings have grown by 12.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 44B's earnings growth over the past year (230.8%) exceeds its 5-year average (12.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 44B earnings growth over the past year (230.8%) exceeded the Consumer Durables industry 21.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 44B's Return on Equity (10.6%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Vistry Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 44B's short term assets (£2.6B) exceed its short term liabilities (£988.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: 44B's short term assets (£2.6B) exceed its long term liabilities (£463.8M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 44B has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: 44B's debt to equity ratio has increased from 0.09% to 6.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 44B's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (162.6%).

Interest Coverage: 44B earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Vistry Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

9.96%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 44B's dividend (9.96%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.52%).

High Dividend: 44B's dividend (9.96%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (4.62%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 44B's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 44B's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (52.4%), 44B's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (66.4%), 44B's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

7.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Greg Fitzgerald (58 yo)

5.25yrs

Tenure

UK£2,363,000

Compensation

Mr. Gregory Paul Fitzgerald, also known as Greg, has been the Chief Executive Officer of Vistry Group PLC (formerly known as Bovis Homes Group PLC) since April 18, 2017 and serves as its Executive Director...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Greg's total compensation ($USD2.81M) is above average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD1.75M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Greg's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 44B's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 44B's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: 44B insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/06 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31