Spire Global Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of EL9 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

EL9 (€15.1) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€28.84)

Is EL9 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EL9 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EL9 (€15.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€28.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EL9 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EL9?

Key metric: As EL9 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for EL9. This is calculated by dividing EL9's market cap by their current revenue.
What is EL9's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	3.7x
Sales	US$107.22m
Market Cap	US$393.21m

EL9 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	4.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-20.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does EL9's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for EL9 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.5x
BDT Bertrandt	0.1x	3.2%	€178.4m
3D6 Avemio	0.3x	6.2%	€30.1m
AAD Amadeus FiRe	0.9x	3.5%	€418.8m
BFSA Befesa	0.7x	7.2%	€802.4m
EL9 Spire Global	3.7x	15.6%	€393.2m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: EL9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.7x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does EL9's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Professional Services Industry?

25 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

25 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: EL9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.7x) compared to the European Professional Services industry average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EL9's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EL9 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	3.7x
Fair PS Ratio	1.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: EL9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EL9 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	€15.10	€18.64 +23.5%	13.5%	€22.83	€15.22	n/a	5
Nov ’25	€8.95	€11.97 +33.8%	35.0%	€18.14	€7.26	n/a	5
Oct ’25	€8.80	€11.97 +36.1%	35.0%	€18.14	€7.26	n/a	5
Sep ’25	€7.55	€12.19 +61.4%	38.0%	€18.06	€7.22	n/a	4
Aug ’25	€12.70	€15.05 +18.5%	19.4%	€18.62	€11.17	n/a	6
Jul ’25	€9.90	€15.05 +52.0%	19.4%	€18.62	€11.17	n/a	6
Jun ’25	€8.50	€15.52 +82.6%	18.2%	€18.48	€11.09	n/a	5
May ’25	€9.55	€19.40 +103.1%	17.8%	€22.38	€13.06	n/a	5
Apr ’25	€11.00	€18.97 +72.5%	20.0%	€22.21	€12.96	n/a	4
Mar ’25	€11.30	€18.54 +64.1%	27.6%	€23.18	€10.20	n/a	4
Feb ’25	€6.50	€18.47 +184.1%	28.4%	€23.71	€10.03	n/a	4
Jan ’25	n/a	€18.99 0%	28.4%	€24.38	€10.32	n/a	4
Dec ’24	n/a	€18.99 0%	28.4%	€24.38	€10.32	n/a	4
Nov ’24	n/a	€23.46 0%	11.2%	€25.59	€18.96	€8.95	4
Oct ’24	n/a	€24.63 0%	16.2%	€30.02	€18.76	€8.80	4
Sep ’24	€0.51	€23.78 +4,584.8%	15.2%	€29.49	€18.43	€7.55	5
Aug ’24	€5.36	€20.90 +290.0%	39.5%	€29.86	€4.11	€12.70	6
Jul ’24	€3.86	€20.90 +442.0%	39.5%	€29.86	€4.11	€9.90	6
Jun ’24	€5.40	€20.90 +287.1%	39.5%	€29.86	€4.11	€8.50	6
May ’24	€5.04	€21.44 +325.4%	39.0%	€29.50	€4.43	€9.55	7
Apr ’24	€4.92	€21.44 +335.8%	39.0%	€29.50	€4.43	€11.00	7
Mar ’24	€7.60	€25.22 +231.9%	32.4%	€30.40	€7.98	€11.30	8
Feb ’24	€8.56	€25.22 +194.7%	32.4%	€30.40	€7.98	€6.50	8
Jan ’24	€6.76	€25.22 +273.1%	32.4%	€30.40	€7.98	n/a	8
Dec ’23	€9.44	€25.22 +167.2%	32.4%	€30.40	€7.98	n/a	8
Nov ’23	€11.36	€29.10 +156.1%	41.3%	€49.44	€6.18	n/a	8

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.