Travis Perkins plc

DB:LFPB Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.0b

Travis Perkins Valuation

Is LFPB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LFPB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LFPB (€9.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€12.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LFPB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LFPB?

Key metric: As LFPB is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for LFPB. This is calculated by dividing LFPB's market cap by their current revenue.
What is LFPB's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
SalesUK£4.75b
Market CapUK£1.64b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does LFPB's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for LFPB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.9x
BNR Brenntag
0.6x3.3%€9.0b
KCO Klöckner & Co
0.07x4.8%€468.8m
BYW BayWa
0.03x9.5%€338.0m
WOLF Meta Wolf
3.1xn/a€91.7m
LFPB Travis Perkins
0.3x2.6%€1.6b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: LFPB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does LFPB's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

18 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LFPB 0.3xIndustry Avg. 0.5xNo. of Companies18PS00.61.21.82.43+
18 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: LFPB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LFPB's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LFPB PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: LFPB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LFPB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€9.25
€11.21
+21.2%
9.0%€13.77€9.34n/a16
Nov ’25€9.60
€11.40
+18.7%
9.2%€13.79€9.36n/a16
Oct ’25€10.90
€11.48
+5.3%
10.3%€13.65€9.26n/a16
Sep ’25€10.70
€11.07
+3.5%
10.4%€12.89€9.08n/a16
Aug ’25€11.00
€10.81
-1.7%
13.3%€12.99€8.97n/a16
Jul ’25€8.95
€10.27
+14.8%
14.3%€13.01€7.22n/a17
Jun ’25€9.95
€10.03
+0.8%
14.3%€12.92€7.16n/a17
May ’25€8.70
€9.42
+8.2%
11.6%€11.81€7.13n/a17
Apr ’25€8.35
€9.33
+11.7%
10.0%€11.09€7.12n/a17
Mar ’25€8.66
€9.85
+13.8%
10.4%€12.00€7.49n/a17
Feb ’25€8.95
€9.70
+8.4%
11.8%€12.00€7.49n/a18
Jan ’25€9.47
€9.49
+0.2%
11.6%€11.83€7.45n/a18
Dec ’24€8.92
€9.41
+5.5%
11.6%€11.78€7.41n/a18
Nov ’24€8.48
€9.61
+13.4%
11.2%€11.81€7.49€9.6017
Oct ’24€9.64
€10.68
+10.8%
12.0%€13.94€9.06€10.9018
Sep ’24€9.81
€10.68
+8.9%
12.0%€13.94€9.06€10.7018
Aug ’24€10.24
€10.65
+4.0%
12.2%€13.96€9.07€11.0018
Jul ’24€9.38
€10.74
+14.5%
11.7%€13.90€9.03€8.9518
Jun ’24€10.16
€11.68
+15.0%
12.9%€14.98€9.33€9.9518
May ’24€10.80
€11.46
+6.1%
12.6%€14.70€9.16€8.7019
Apr ’24€10.80
€11.53
+6.7%
12.6%€14.90€9.33€8.3519
Mar ’24€11.30
€11.23
-0.6%
13.8%€14.77€9.24€8.6618
Feb ’24€11.50
€11.05
-3.9%
13.6%€15.16€9.35€8.9519
Jan ’24€10.10
€11.25
+11.4%
14.9%€15.46€9.30€9.4719
Dec ’23€11.00
€11.33
+3.0%
14.3%€15.47€9.43€8.9219
Nov ’23€9.60
€11.37
+18.4%
14.8%€15.34€9.35€8.4818

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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