Komatsu Ltd.

DB:KOM1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €23.6b

Komatsu Valuation

Is KOM1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KOM1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KOM1 (€25.01) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€47.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KOM1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KOM1?

Key metric: As KOM1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for KOM1. This is calculated by dividing KOM1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is KOM1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.8x
EarningsJP¥389.43b
Market CapJP¥3.80t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KOM1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for KOM1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.6x
DTG Daimler Truck Holding
8.7x11.6%€29.0b
8TRA Traton
5.6x8.4%€14.4b
KBX Knorr-Bremse
19.5x10.8%€11.7b
KGX KION GROUP
12.8x17.4%€4.3b
KOM1 Komatsu
9.8x4.4%€3.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KOM1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the peer average (11.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KOM1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Machinery Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
KOM1 9.8xIndustry Avg. 14.7xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KOM1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the German Machinery industry average (14.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KOM1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KOM1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.8x
Fair PE Ratio17.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KOM1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KOM1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€25.01
€28.09
+12.3%
16.6%€33.56€20.13n/a11
Nov ’25€23.55
€27.80
+18.1%
17.0%€33.28€19.36n/a11
Oct ’25€24.88
€28.44
+14.3%
16.9%€34.14€19.86n/a11
Sep ’25€24.97
€29.76
+19.2%
13.7%€34.04€21.04n/a11
Aug ’25€24.31
€31.22
+28.4%
9.2%€35.14€24.04n/a11
Jul ’25€27.23
€29.23
+7.4%
11.4%€33.57€22.38n/a11
Jun ’25€26.72
€29.27
+9.5%
11.5%€33.68€22.45n/a11
May ’25€27.55
€29.38
+6.6%
11.5%€33.86€22.57n/a11
Apr ’25€27.13
€28.55
+5.2%
12.7%€33.51€20.71n/a11
Mar ’25€26.71
€27.29
+2.2%
13.1%€32.47€20.83n/a12
Feb ’25€25.65
€27.49
+7.2%
12.0%€31.44€21.38n/a12
Jan ’25€23.25
€27.73
+19.3%
12.2%€31.66€21.53n/a12
Dec ’24€23.30
€27.45
+17.8%
10.4%€30.99€23.55n/a12
Nov ’24€21.66
€28.57
+31.9%
12.6%€34.75€22.12€23.5513
Oct ’24€25.50
€28.96
+13.6%
12.3%€34.81€22.15€24.8813
Sep ’24€26.44
€27.97
+5.8%
12.6%€34.70€22.08€24.9713
Aug ’24€25.78
€27.17
+5.4%
10.1%€30.48€22.23€24.3113
Jul ’24€24.49
€25.32
+3.4%
10.0%€28.51€21.85€27.2314
Jun ’24€21.84
€25.63
+17.3%
13.4%€29.92€18.62€26.7215
May ’24€22.20
€25.10
+13.1%
11.8%€29.31€18.65€27.5515
Apr ’24€22.43
€26.19
+16.8%
12.4%€30.75€19.57€27.1315
Mar ’24€22.77
€24.97
+9.7%
12.0%€30.57€19.46€26.7115
Feb ’24€21.88
€25.25
+15.4%
11.8%€31.09€19.78€25.6515
Jan ’24€20.27
€24.76
+22.1%
12.0%€30.66€19.51€23.2515
Dec ’23€21.81
€24.40
+11.9%
12.1%€30.24€19.24€23.3015
Nov ’23€20.51
€23.76
+15.8%
12.3%€29.95€19.06€21.6615

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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