Federal Signal Valuation

Is FSG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FSG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FSG (€81) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€121.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FSG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FSG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

FSG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA17.8x
PEG Ratio3.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FSG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FSG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.7x
KGX KION GROUP
13.8x18.6%€4.7b
JUN3 Jungheinrich
9.4x9.1%€2.6b
KBX Knorr-Bremse
21.8x10.9%€13.0b
8TRA Traton
5.9x9.4%€15.0b
FSG Federal Signal
27.9x8.5%€5.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FSG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x) compared to the peer average (12.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FSG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Machinery Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.4%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.4%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FSG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x) compared to the German Machinery industry average (15.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FSG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FSG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio27.9x
Fair PE Ratio16.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FSG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FSG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€81.00
€91.95
+13.5%
9.6%€106.38€81.40n/a5
Oct ’25€83.00
€91.95
+10.8%
9.6%€106.38€81.40n/a5
Sep ’25€83.50
€91.95
+10.1%
9.6%€106.38€81.40n/a5
Aug ’25€91.00
€91.95
+1.0%
9.6%€106.38€81.40n/a5
Jul ’25€76.50
€80.75
+5.6%
10.0%€92.18€70.06n/a5
Jun ’25€79.50
€80.75
+1.6%
10.0%€92.18€70.06n/a5
May ’25€78.50
€78.57
+0.08%
8.5%€88.85€71.08n/a4
Apr ’25€78.00
€76.67
-1.7%
10.0%€87.75€66.51n/a4
Mar ’25€74.50
€71.98
-3.4%
6.3%€78.44€66.44n/a4
Feb ’25€70.50
€63.89
-9.4%
5.5%€69.95€61.56n/a4
Jan ’25€68.50
€63.89
-6.7%
5.5%€69.95€61.56n/a4
Dec ’24€62.50
€63.89
+2.2%
5.5%€69.95€61.56n/a4
Nov ’24€54.00
€60.16
+11.4%
4.5%€63.68€57.12n/a4
Oct ’24€56.00
€60.16
+7.4%
4.5%€63.68€57.12€83.004
Sep ’24€55.50
€60.38
+8.8%
7.5%€68.21€55.47€83.505
Aug ’24€55.00
€60.38
+9.8%
7.5%€68.21€55.47€91.005
Jul ’24€58.00
€55.72
-3.9%
9.9%€61.51€48.84€76.505
Jun ’24€48.60
€55.72
+14.6%
9.9%€61.51€48.84€79.505
May ’24€45.60
€57.37
+25.8%
11.2%€63.95€48.91€78.505
Apr ’24€48.20
€57.37
+19.0%
11.2%€63.95€48.91€78.005
Mar ’24€48.60
€47.42
-2.4%
7.8%€52.38€41.36€74.505
Feb ’24€48.20
€47.42
-1.6%
7.8%€52.38€41.36€70.505
Jan ’24€43.20
€50.55
+17.0%
5.5%€53.87€44.89€68.506
Dec ’23€46.00
€50.55
+9.9%
5.5%€53.87€44.89€62.506
Nov ’23€46.00
€49.23
+7.0%
6.0%€53.15€45.99€54.006
Oct ’23€38.20
€45.61
+19.4%
9.2%€51.31€39.23€56.006

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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