Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.

DB:6DA Stock Report

Market Cap: €9.8b

Advanced Drainage Systems Valuation

Is 6DA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 6DA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 6DA (€126) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€195.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 6DA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 6DA?

Key metric: As 6DA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 6DA. This is calculated by dividing 6DA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 6DA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.8x
EarningsUS$492.25m
Market CapUS$10.22b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 6DA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 6DA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.2x
VIB3 Villeroy & Boch
14.8x43.5%€416.4m
ST5 STEICO
10x-6.9%€277.2m
WUG Westag
24.1xn/a€117.0m
BNR Brenntag
16.1x15.6%€8.8b
6DA Advanced Drainage Systems
20.8x5.8%€10.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 6DA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the peer average (16.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 6DA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Building Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
6DA 20.8xIndustry Avg. 19.9xNo. of Companies13PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 6DA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the European Building industry average (19.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 6DA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

6DA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.8x
Fair PE Ratio16.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 6DA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 6DA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€126.00
€158.27
+25.6%
9.1%€174.25€127.85n/a8
Nov ’25€136.70
€168.43
+23.2%
5.7%€179.60€154.73n/a8
Oct ’25€140.30
€168.12
+19.8%
5.4%€177.68€153.08n/a8
Sep ’25€141.05
€168.12
+19.2%
5.4%€177.68€153.08n/a8
Aug ’25€156.20
€179.16
+14.7%
3.5%€188.12€166.70n/a8
Jul ’25€145.70
€179.16
+23.0%
3.5%€188.12€166.70n/a8
Jun ’25€159.15
€172.09
+8.1%
8.6%€185.78€133.36n/a9
May ’25€147.10
€167.23
+13.7%
8.4%€180.38€136.23n/a8
Apr ’25€158.20
€165.01
+4.3%
8.0%€175.43€134.59n/a9
Mar ’25€149.80
€165.01
+10.2%
8.0%€175.43€134.59n/a9
Feb ’25€121.80
€136.83
+12.3%
5.8%€151.54€125.98n/a9
Jan ’25€126.40
€133.39
+5.5%
7.8%€152.59€112.14n/a9
Dec ’24€114.60
€134.43
+17.3%
7.5%€152.03€113.79n/a8
Nov ’24€101.20
€142.97
+41.3%
5.2%€153.38€127.82€136.708
Oct ’24€107.60
€137.33
+27.6%
6.3%€149.32€122.59€140.309
Sep ’24€120.40
€137.33
+14.1%
6.3%€149.32€122.59€141.059
Aug ’24€114.40
€114.70
+0.3%
11.1%€135.60€92.21€156.208
Jul ’24€104.20
€108.11
+3.8%
7.2%€120.02€93.45€145.707
Jun ’24€90.70
€108.19
+19.3%
7.9%€121.14€94.32€159.157
May ’24€76.60
€101.71
+32.8%
8.5%€114.10€85.80€147.107
Apr ’24€76.18
€104.87
+37.7%
8.6%€116.18€87.36€158.206
Mar ’24€82.38
€109.06
+32.4%
13.5%€137.02€87.62€149.806
Feb ’24€94.84
€112.87
+19.0%
11.4%€130.41€87.56€121.806
Jan ’24€76.12
€113.88
+49.6%
10.5%€131.04€90.79€126.406
Dec ’23€91.40
€117.27
+28.3%
10.4%€135.87€94.14€114.606
Nov ’23€117.35
€161.73
+37.8%
5.3%€171.96€146.37€101.206

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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