Howden Joinery Group Plc

DB:10J Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.2b

Howden Joinery Group Valuation

Is 10J undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 10J when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 10J (€9.49) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€11.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 10J is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 10J?

Key metric: As 10J is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 10J. This is calculated by dividing 10J's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 10J's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17x
EarningsUK£254.40m
Market CapUK£4.33b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 10J's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 10J vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11x
BNR Brenntag
15.2x15.9%€8.3b
HMU HMS Bergbau
10.5x8.0%€133.6m
NWX Nordwest Handel
5.8xn/a€64.1m
KGX KION GROUP
12.4x17.2%€4.1b
10J Howden Joinery Group
17x6.0%€4.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 10J is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x) compared to the peer average (11x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 10J's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
10J 17.0xIndustry Avg. 14.1xNo. of Companies10PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 10J is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (14.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 10J's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

10J PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17x
Fair PE Ratio14.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 10J is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 10J forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€9.49
€11.68
+23.1%
9.8%€14.58€10.23n/a13
Dec ’25€9.83
€11.46
+16.6%
12.5%€14.55€8.17n/a13
Nov ’25€9.92
€11.74
+18.4%
11.9%€14.53€8.17n/a14
Oct ’25€10.91
€11.74
+7.6%
11.9%€14.53€8.17n/a14
Sep ’25€11.31
€11.39
+0.7%
12.1%€14.18€7.97n/a14
Aug ’25€11.15
€11.50
+3.1%
11.8%€14.36€8.07n/a14
Jul ’25€10.37
€11.06
+6.6%
11.9%€14.28€8.02n/a14
Jun ’25€10.72
€10.55
-1.6%
13.6%€13.60€7.91n/a15
May ’25€10.32
€10.47
+1.5%
11.7%€11.91€7.95n/a15
Apr ’25€10.50
€10.37
-1.3%
11.3%€11.89€7.94n/a15
Mar ’25€9.75
€10.09
+3.4%
11.7%€11.68€7.83n/a14
Feb ’25€9.35
€9.69
+3.6%
11.0%€11.62€7.86n/a14
Jan ’25€9.40
€9.17
-2.5%
9.8%€11.36€7.69n/a15
Dec ’24€8.45
€9.17
+8.5%
9.8%€11.36€7.69€9.8315
Nov ’24€7.30
€9.42
+29.1%
9.3%€11.52€7.83€9.9213
Oct ’24€8.40
€9.53
+13.5%
9.0%€11.67€7.94€10.9114
Sep ’24€8.65
€9.53
+10.2%
9.0%€11.67€7.94€11.3114
Aug ’24€8.60
€9.53
+10.8%
9.0%€11.67€7.94€11.1514
Jul ’24€7.40
€9.18
+24.1%
9.1%€10.45€7.12€10.3713
Jun ’24€7.60
€9.08
+19.5%
9.0%€10.31€7.03€10.7213
May ’24€7.60
€9.00
+18.5%
9.2%€10.18€6.94€10.3212
Apr ’24€7.85
€9.00
+14.7%
9.2%€10.18€6.94€10.5012
Mar ’24€8.10
€8.94
+10.4%
11.4%€10.17€6.71€9.7513
Feb ’24€7.80
€8.36
+7.1%
13.8%€10.09€6.54€9.3513
Jan ’24€6.45
€8.65
+34.1%
14.3%€10.81€6.74€9.4013
Dec ’23€6.80
€8.76
+28.9%
13.2%€10.82€6.86€8.4513

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/25 21:01
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/06/15
Annual Earnings2023/12/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Howden Joinery Group Plc is covered by 29 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Emily BiddulphBarclays
Robert ChantryBerenberg
Aynsley LamminCanaccord Genuity