Stabilus SE Just Missed EPS By 36%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Stabilus SE (ETR:STM) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.6% to close at €65.20 following the release of its quarterly results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.47, some 36% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €305m. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Stabilus

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Stabilus are now predicting revenues of €1.42b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be €3.96, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.29 in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Stabilus after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

There's been no major changes to the price target of €74.89, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Stabilus, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €88.00 and the most bearish at €55.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Stabilus shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Stabilus' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 21% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.7% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Stabilus to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Stabilus going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Stabilus you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.