Stabilus SE Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Stabilus SE (ETR:STM) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.3% to €57.10 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.47, some 36% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €305m. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Stabilus

Following the latest results, Stabilus' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of €1.41b in 2024. This would be a notable 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 30% to €3.88. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €1.42b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.95 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €74.83, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Stabilus at €88.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €59.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Stabilus' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 20% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Stabilus to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Stabilus going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Stabilus that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.