- Aerospace & Defense
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of MTU Aero Engines AG (ETR:MTX)
- MTU Aero Engines' estimated fair value is €244 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- With €217 share price, MTU Aero Engines appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- The €241 analyst price target for MTXis comparable to our estimate of fair value.
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of MTU Aero Engines AG (ETR:MTX) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for MTU Aero Engines
Is MTU Aero Engines Fairly Valued?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF (€, Millions)||€399.8m||€505.0m||€607.3m||€634.9m||€653.4m||€667.0m||€677.1m||€684.5m||€690.1m||€694.4m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x9||Analyst x9||Analyst x7||Analyst x4||Est @ 2.91%||Est @ 2.09%||Est @ 1.51%||Est @ 1.10%||Est @ 0.82%||Est @ 0.62%|
|Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 5.2%||€380||€457||€522||€519||€508||€493||€476||€457||€438||€419|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €4.7b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €694m× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (5.2%– 0.2%) = €14b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €14b÷ ( 1 + 5.2%)10= €8.4b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €13b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €217, the company appears about fair value at a 11% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at MTU Aero Engines as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.844. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for MTU Aero Engines
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Aerospace & Defense market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the German market.
- Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For MTU Aero Engines, we've put together three fundamental elements you should further examine:
- Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for MTU Aero Engines we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does MTX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.
Find out whether MTU Aero Engines is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.View the Free Analysis
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
MTU Aero Engines
MTU Aero Engines AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, markets, and maintains commercial and military engines, and aero derivative industrial gas turbines in Germany, other European countries, North America, Asia, and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet with proven track record.