Earnings Miss: Knorr-Bremse AG Missed EPS By 12% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a good week for Knorr-Bremse AG (ETR:KBX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 3.5% to €82.20. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at €8.0b, although statutory earnings per share came in 12% below what the analysts expected, at €2.77 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Knorr-Bremse after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Knorr-Bremse

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Knorr-Bremse's twelve analysts is for revenues of €8.27b in 2025. This reflects a credible 3.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 52% to €4.20. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €8.33b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.26 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €81.80. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Knorr-Bremse at €100.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €60.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Knorr-Bremse's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.4% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Knorr-Bremse is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Knorr-Bremse's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €81.80, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Knorr-Bremse going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Knorr-Bremse that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.