Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.

DB:XMF Stock Report

Market Cap: €87.8b

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Valuation

Is XMF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XMF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XMF (€21.98) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€35.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XMF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XMF?

Key metric: As XMF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for XMF. This is calculated by dividing XMF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is XMF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.1x
EarningsJP¥1.07t
Market CapJP¥14.09t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XMF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XMF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.3x
CBK Commerzbank
8x8.8%€17.1b
PCZ ProCredit Holding
4.3x10.7%€451.2m
TD Toronto-Dominion Bank
17.9x17.2%CA$136.0b
D05 DBS Group Holdings
10.9x1.3%S$118.6b
XMF Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
13.1x8.4%€14.1t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XMF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the peer average (10.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XMF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
XMF 13.1xIndustry Avg. 7.3xNo. of Companies47PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XMF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XMF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XMF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.1x
Fair PE Ratio13x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XMF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XMF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€21.98
€23.51
+7.0%
19.9%€28.47€10.78n/a12
Nov ’25€19.26
€23.11
+20.0%
20.0%€28.15€10.66n/a12
Oct ’25€19.42
€23.94
+23.3%
20.0%€29.16€11.04n/a12
Sep ’25€19.45
€24.18
+24.3%
20.9%€29.07€11.01n/a11
Aug ’25€22.65
€23.32
+3.0%
20.8%€27.96€10.58n/a11
Jul ’25€20.53
€20.51
-0.1%
22.9%€27.28€10.33n/a12
Jun ’25€19.85
€18.60
-6.3%
17.8%€22.50€10.37n/a12
May ’25€17.60
€18.50
+5.1%
18.2%€23.39€10.78n/a12
Apr ’25€17.83
€18.22
+2.2%
16.8%€22.41€10.80n/a12
Mar ’25€17.04
€17.28
+1.4%
14.0%€20.42€10.82n/a13
Feb ’25€15.82
€17.41
+10.1%
14.0%€20.96€11.11n/a13
Jan ’25€14.44
€17.62
+22.0%
13.9%€21.30€11.29n/a13
Dec ’24€14.90
€17.00
+14.1%
12.8%€20.87€11.06n/a14
Nov ’24€15.30
€16.72
+9.3%
12.6%€21.02€11.14€19.2614
Oct ’24€15.28
€15.45
+1.1%
14.3%€18.60€10.14€19.4214
Sep ’24€14.15
€15.18
+7.3%
13.4%€18.59€10.14€19.4515
Aug ’24€13.67
€14.42
+5.5%
14.5%€18.75€10.23€22.6515
Jul ’24€12.86
€13.78
+7.1%
12.8%€16.84€10.22€20.5314
Jun ’24€12.61
€14.17
+12.4%
13.1%€17.58€10.67€19.8513
May ’24€12.26
€14.29
+16.6%
12.4%€17.09€10.97€17.6014
Apr ’24€12.02
€14.21
+18.2%
13.1%€17.31€11.11€17.8314
Mar ’24€13.45
€14.29
+6.2%
12.7%€17.25€11.07€17.0414
Feb ’24€13.17
€14.08
+6.9%
12.5%€17.90€11.31€15.8213
Jan ’24€12.34
€13.56
+9.9%
13.6%€17.96€11.34€14.4413
Dec ’23€10.67
€12.83
+20.2%
16.3%€17.79€9.83€14.9012
Nov ’23€9.38
€12.20
+30.2%
16.0%€16.88€9.53€15.3012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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