Crédit Agricole S.A.

DB:XCA Stock Report

Market Cap: €40.4b

Crédit Agricole Valuation

Is XCA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XCA (€13.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€36.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XCA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XCA?

Key metric: As XCA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for XCA. This is calculated by dividing XCA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is XCA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.7x
Earnings€6.04b
Market Cap€40.36b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XCA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XCA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.7x
CBK Commerzbank
8.9x8.2%€18.8b
PCZ ProCredit Holding
4.3x9.7%€462.9m
MBK Merkur PrivatBank KgaA
10.5x8.6%€112.8m
BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero)
11x9.5%Rp673.4t
XCA Crédit Agricole
6.7x3.7%€40.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the peer average (8.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XCA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
XCA 6.7xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies44PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XCA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XCA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.7x
Fair PE Ratio11.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XCA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€13.32
€16.55
+24.3%
12.2%€23.40€14.00n/a19
Nov ’25€14.09
€16.64
+18.1%
12.1%€23.40€14.00n/a19
Oct ’25€13.74
€16.29
+18.6%
12.6%€21.60€11.00n/a20
Sep ’25€13.80
€16.17
+17.2%
12.3%€21.60€11.00n/a20
Aug ’25€13.95
€16.02
+14.9%
12.6%€21.60€10.75n/a20
Jul ’25€13.07
€15.79
+20.9%
13.9%€21.60€10.50n/a20
Jun ’25€14.88
€15.43
+3.7%
11.9%€18.40€10.50n/a20
May ’25€14.60
€14.40
-1.4%
11.4%€17.30€10.50n/a20
Apr ’25€13.79
€14.29
+3.6%
12.2%€17.30€10.50n/a20
Mar ’25€12.57
€14.08
+12.0%
11.5%€17.30€10.50n/a20
Feb ’25€12.90
€14.38
+11.5%
9.3%€17.30€12.20n/a20
Jan ’25€12.82
€13.91
+8.5%
9.3%€17.30€12.00n/a20
Dec ’24€12.05
€13.62
+13.0%
9.5%€17.30€12.00n/a20
Nov ’24€11.39
€13.37
+17.4%
9.8%€17.30€11.50€14.0919
Oct ’24€11.68
€13.36
+14.4%
10.0%€17.30€11.50€13.7419
Sep ’24€11.68
€13.43
+15.0%
9.4%€17.30€11.70€13.8020
Aug ’24€11.21
€12.96
+15.6%
10.9%€17.30€11.30€13.9520
Jul ’24€10.97
€12.98
+18.4%
11.1%€17.30€11.30€13.0719
Jun ’24€10.67
€12.87
+20.5%
11.6%€17.30€11.00€14.8818
May ’24€11.07
€12.61
+14.0%
12.2%€17.30€10.50€14.6018
Apr ’24€10.37
€12.16
+17.2%
18.1%€17.30€5.55€13.7919
Mar ’24€11.42
€12.03
+5.4%
18.8%€17.30€5.55€12.5719
Feb ’24€11.08
€11.44
+3.3%
19.6%€17.30€5.55€12.9019
Jan ’24€9.79
€11.05
+12.9%
16.6%€14.80€5.55€12.8218
Dec ’23€9.52
€11.00
+15.6%
16.6%€14.80€5.55€12.0518
Nov ’23€9.33
€11.60
+24.3%
17.4%€15.00€5.55€11.3920

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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