Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A.

DB:ME9 Stock Report

Market Cap: €11.6b

Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario Valuation

Is ME9 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ME9 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ME9 (€13.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€22.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ME9 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ME9?

Key metric: As ME9 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ME9. This is calculated by dividing ME9's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ME9's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.3x
Earnings€1.25b
Market Cap€11.60b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ME9's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ME9 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.9x
CBK Commerzbank
8.1x8.8%€18.2b
PCZ ProCredit Holding
4.4x9.9%€450.0m
MBK Merkur PrivatBank KgaA
10x8.6%€107.3m
1140 Bank Albilad
16.9x12.2%ر.س44.4b
ME9 Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario
9.3x4.0%€11.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ME9 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the peer average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ME9's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ME9 9.3xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies47PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ME9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ME9's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ME9 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.3x
Fair PE Ratio10.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ME9 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ME9 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€13.88
€15.88
+14.4%
6.2%€17.80€14.60n/a14
Nov ’25€15.10
€15.98
+5.8%
6.3%€18.20€14.30n/a14
Oct ’25€15.24
€15.50
+1.7%
10.5%€18.20€11.10n/a14
Sep ’25€15.09
€15.46
+2.5%
10.6%€18.20€11.10n/a14
Aug ’25€14.93
€15.12
+1.3%
11.2%€18.20€11.10n/a14
Jul ’25€13.78
€14.80
+7.4%
11.1%€18.20€11.10n/a14
Jun ’25€14.45
€14.69
+1.7%
10.3%€16.90€10.90n/a14
May ’25€13.42
€14.00
+4.4%
10.2%€16.40€10.90n/a14
Apr ’25€13.77
€13.22
-4.0%
11.7%€16.40€9.90n/a14
Mar ’25€12.61
€12.91
+2.4%
9.6%€14.70€9.90n/a13
Feb ’25€12.15
€12.79
+5.3%
9.0%€14.70€9.90n/a13
Jan ’25€11.12
€12.67
+14.0%
8.8%€14.70€9.90n/a13
Dec ’24€10.77
€12.76
+18.5%
8.9%€14.70€9.90n/a13
Nov ’24€11.31
€12.80
+13.3%
9.0%€14.70€9.90€15.1013
Oct ’24€12.42
€12.92
+4.0%
7.5%€14.70€11.30€15.2413
Sep ’24€12.03
€12.71
+5.7%
7.6%€14.70€11.30€15.0913
Aug ’24€12.08
€12.42
+2.8%
8.4%€14.70€10.10€14.9313
Jul ’24€10.87
€11.81
+8.6%
9.3%€14.30€10.10€13.7813
Jun ’24€10.48
€11.61
+10.9%
9.4%€14.30€10.10€14.4512
May ’24€9.87
€11.17
+13.2%
8.3%€13.00€9.80€13.4212
Apr ’24€9.23
€11.07
+19.9%
9.3%€13.00€9.50€13.7712
Mar ’24€10.09
€11.16
+10.6%
8.4%€13.00€9.80€12.6112
Feb ’24€9.83
€10.83
+10.3%
8.7%€12.00€9.30€12.1512
Jan ’24€9.01
€10.60
+17.6%
9.7%€12.00€9.00€11.1211
Dec ’23€9.34
€10.60
+13.5%
9.7%€12.00€9.00€10.7711
Nov ’23€9.28
€10.48
+13.0%
10.1%€12.00€9.00€11.3111

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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