Lloyds Banking Group plc

XTRA:LLD Stock Report

Market Cap: €39.6b

Lloyds Banking Group Valuation

Is LLD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LLD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LLD (€0.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€1.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LLD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LLD?

Key metric: As LLD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LLD. This is calculated by dividing LLD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LLD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.4x
EarningsUK£4.45b
Market CapUK£32.94b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LLD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LLD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.3x
CBK Commerzbank
8.5x8.8%€18.2b
PCZ ProCredit Holding
4.2x9.9%€450.0m
MBK Merkur PrivatBank KgaA
10x8.6%€107.3m
ACA Crédit Agricole
6.6x3.7%€39.7b
LLD Lloyds Banking Group
7.4x4.2%€32.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LLD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the peer average (7.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LLD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LLD 7.4xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies46PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LLD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LLD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LLD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.4x
Fair PE Ratio11.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LLD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LLD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€0.65
€0.78
+20.0%
12.7%€0.96€0.64n/a18
Nov ’25€0.66
€0.78
+19.7%
13.0%€0.98€0.63n/a18
Oct ’25€0.70
€0.75
+7.3%
10.5%€0.93€0.63n/a18
Sep ’25€0.69
€0.74
+7.6%
10.1%€0.93€0.63n/a18
Aug ’25€0.67
€0.74
+11.4%
11.2%€0.93€0.59n/a18
Jul ’25€0.66
€0.72
+9.5%
11.3%€0.92€0.59n/a19
Jun ’25€0.65
€0.71
+9.3%
11.5%€0.92€0.59n/a18
May ’25€0.58
€0.71
+21.9%
13.5%€0.91€0.55n/a18
Apr ’25€0.61
€0.68
+12.1%
14.8%€0.90€0.48n/a17
Mar ’25€0.55
€0.69
+25.2%
16.4%€0.93€0.48n/a19
Feb ’25€0.50
€0.70
+40.4%
17.6%€0.94€0.48n/a19
Jan ’25€0.55
€0.69
+24.7%
17.5%€0.92€0.47n/a19
Dec ’24€0.52
€0.69
+32.8%
19.9%€0.92€0.46n/a19
Nov ’24€0.47
€0.69
+49.0%
20.9%€0.94€0.46€0.6619
Oct ’24€0.51
€0.70
+35.6%
20.1%€0.95€0.46€0.7020
Sep ’24€0.49
€0.71
+43.5%
19.5%€0.97€0.47€0.6921
Aug ’24€0.52
€0.71
+37.1%
18.8%€0.93€0.47€0.6721
Jul ’24€0.52
€0.73
+41.5%
16.7%€0.90€0.49€0.6620
Jun ’24€0.52
€0.74
+42.0%
13.4%€0.89€0.58€0.6521
May ’24€0.55
€0.73
+33.5%
13.1%€0.90€0.57€0.5821
Apr ’24€0.55
€0.73
+34.2%
13.2%€0.92€0.57€0.6120
Mar ’24€0.59
€0.74
+25.1%
15.1%€1.01€0.55€0.5521
Feb ’24€0.58
€0.73
+24.6%
18.6%€1.20€0.55€0.5022
Jan ’24€0.56
€0.73
+32.2%
18.9%€1.20€0.55€0.5520
Dec ’23€0.54
€0.74
+37.1%
19.3%€1.22€0.56€0.5220
Nov ’23€0.49
€0.71
+45.8%
22.2%€1.17€0.41€0.4720

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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