Toyota Motor Corporation

DB:TOM Stock Report

Market Cap: €216.9b

Toyota Motor Valuation

Is TOM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TOM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TOM (€16.56) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€16.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TOM is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TOM?

Key metric: As TOM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TOM. This is calculated by dividing TOM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TOM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.2x
EarningsJP¥4.26t
Market CapJP¥34.98t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TOM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TOM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.6x
P911 Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche
13.2x11.3%€52.5b
BMW Bayerische Motoren Werke
5.2x5.6%€42.3b
MBG Mercedes-Benz Group
4.6x1.7%€49.8b
VOW3 Volkswagen
3.3x9.6%€41.7b
TOM Toyota Motor
8.2x-0.1%€35.0t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TOM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the peer average (6.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TOM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TOM 8.2xIndustry Avg. 15.7xNo. of Companies15PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TOM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the Global Auto industry average (15.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TOM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TOM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.2x
Fair PE Ratio7.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TOM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TOM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€16.56
€19.86
+19.9%
10.8%€23.21€15.88n/a17
Nov ’25€15.80
€19.93
+26.2%
11.2%€23.11€15.81n/a17
Oct ’25€16.15
€21.31
+31.9%
11.3%€24.02€16.43n/a16
Sep ’25€16.97
€21.53
+26.9%
10.9%€24.76€16.09n/a15
Aug ’25€16.55
€22.81
+37.8%
8.3%€25.37€18.56n/a15
Jul ’25€18.84
€21.65
+14.9%
12.6%€25.54€16.04n/a17
Jun ’25€20.00
€21.66
+8.3%
12.0%€25.32€15.90n/a17
May ’25€21.11
€21.67
+2.7%
15.6%€26.72€13.96n/a18
Apr ’25€23.31
€21.33
-8.5%
16.1%€26.86€14.04n/a18
Mar ’25€22.54
€20.25
-10.2%
14.9%€24.51€14.09n/a18
Feb ’25€18.40
€19.11
+3.8%
11.4%€22.01€14.46n/a18
Jan ’25€16.34
€19.15
+17.2%
11.8%€22.24€14.61n/a18
Dec ’24€17.60
€18.41
+4.6%
11.8%€21.07€14.25n/a18
Nov ’24€17.35
€18.17
+4.7%
11.6%€21.33€13.80€15.8018
Oct ’24€17.00
€17.79
+4.6%
12.1%€21.20€13.93€16.1518
Sep ’24€15.79
€17.05
+7.9%
13.6%€21.27€13.02€16.9718
Aug ’24€15.49
€16.47
+6.3%
14.5%€21.27€10.80€16.5518
Jul ’24€14.65
€15.40
+5.1%
14.9%€19.69€10.80€18.8417
Jun ’24€12.89
€14.93
+15.8%
12.0%€17.74€10.71€20.0017
May ’24€12.30
€14.50
+17.9%
10.4%€17.53€10.79€21.1117
Apr ’24€12.84
€15.09
+17.5%
10.0%€18.12€11.15€23.3117
Mar ’24€12.71
€14.87
+16.9%
10.4%€17.99€11.07€22.5416
Feb ’24€13.40
€15.31
+14.3%
10.0%€18.42€12.05€18.4016
Jan ’24€12.85
€15.73
+22.4%
9.5%€18.50€12.10€16.3416
Dec ’23€14.32
€15.83
+10.5%
9.4%€18.11€11.84€17.6018
Nov ’23€13.70
€15.88
+15.9%
9.2%€17.77€12.30€17.3519

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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