Progress-Werk Oberkirch (XTRA:PWO) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of PWO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PWO (€31.9) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (€19.64)

PWO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

PWO Stock Overview

Progress-Werk Oberkirch AG engages in the development and production of metal components and subsystems for mobility industry in Germany, Czechia, Canada, Mexico, Hog Kong, and China.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (6x) is below the German market (16.6x)

Earnings grew by 1700.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.7% per year for the next 3 years

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Dividend of 4.7% is not well covered by earnings

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Competitors

EDAG Engineering Group

XTRA:ED4

€290.0m

Novem Group

DB:NVM

€357.2m

SAF-Holland

XTRA:SFQ

€393.1m

Schaeffler

XTRA:SHA

€3.9b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Progress-Werk Oberkirch
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€31.90
52 Week High	€34.60
52 Week Low	€26.00
Beta	1.38
1 Month Change	13.52%
3 Month Change	4.93%
1 Year Change	7.77%
3 Year Change	29.68%
5 Year Change	-24.08%
Change since IPO	189.31%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 11

We Think Progress-Werk Oberkirch (ETR:PWO) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...

Shareholder Returns

	PWO	DE Auto Components	DE Market
7D	12.3%	1.5%	1.0%
1Y	7.8%	-29.9%	-20.4%

Return vs Industry: PWO exceeded the German Auto Components industry which returned -29.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PWO exceeded the German Market which returned -20.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PWO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PWO volatility
PWO Average Weekly Movement	4.2%
Auto Components Industry Average Movement	6.2%
Market Average Movement	5.7%
10% most volatile stocks in DE Market	10.2%
10% least volatile stocks in DE Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: PWO is less volatile than 75% of German stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PWO's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1919	2,870	Carlo Lazzarini	https://www.progress-werk.de

Progress-Werk Oberkirch AG engages in the development and production of metal components and subsystems for mobility industry in Germany, Czechia, Canada, Mexico, Hog Kong, and China. It offers mechanical components for electrical and electronic applications, such as motor housings, rotor housings, and covers for electronic control units. The company also provides safety components for airbags and seats, as well as casings for steering wheel suspension; and structural components and sub-systems for vehicle body and chassis consisting of body components, instrument panel carriers, and air spring pots.

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Fundamentals Summary

How do Progress-Werk Oberkirch's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PWO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€99.69m
Earnings (TTM)	€16.69m
Revenue (TTM)	€449.06m

6.0x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is PWO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PWO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€449.06m
Cost of Revenue	€263.54m
Gross Profit	€185.52m
Other Expenses	€168.83m
Earnings	€16.69m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Nov 09, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.34
Gross Margin	41.31%
Net Profit Margin	3.72%
Debt/Equity Ratio	75.7%

How did PWO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.7%

Current Dividend Yield

28%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is PWO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PWO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for PWO. This is calculated by dividing PWO's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is PWO's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€99.69m

PWO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.5x
PEG Ratio	-3.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PWO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

PWO PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for PWO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.7x
ED4 EDAG Engineering Group	13.3x	15.4%	€290.0m
NVM Novem Group	8.1x	21.4%	€357.2m
SFQ SAF-Holland	10.1x	14.7%	€393.1m
SHA Schaeffler	7.2x	22.0%	€3.9b
PWO Progress-Werk Oberkirch	6x	-1.7%	€99.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PWO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the peer average (9.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PWO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Auto Components Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PWO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the German Auto Components industry average (10.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PWO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PWO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6x
Fair PE Ratio	9.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PWO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PWO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PWO (€31.9) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€19.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PWO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Progress-Werk Oberkirch forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-1.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PWO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.7% per year).

Earnings vs Market: PWO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PWO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PWO's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the German market (5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PWO's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if PWO's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Progress-Werk Oberkirch performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-8.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PWO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PWO's current net profit margins (3.7%) are higher than last year (0.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PWO's earnings have declined by 8.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PWO's earnings growth over the past year (1700.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (-8.3% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: PWO earnings growth over the past year (1700.4%) exceeded the Auto Components industry 143.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: PWO's Return on Equity (11.5%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Progress-Werk Oberkirch's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PWO's short term assets (€186.1M) exceed its short term liabilities (€153.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: PWO's short term assets (€186.1M) exceed its long term liabilities (€108.6M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PWO's net debt to equity ratio (71.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: PWO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 122.2% to 75.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PWO's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (12.5%).

Interest Coverage: PWO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Progress-Werk Oberkirch current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

4.70%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PWO's dividend (4.7%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.46%).

High Dividend: PWO's dividend (4.7%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (4.5%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PWO's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: PWO's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (28.1%), PWO's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (126.4%), PWO's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Carlo Lazzarini

1.92yrs

Tenure

€418,000

Compensation

Mr. Carlo Lazzarini serves as Member of Management Board at Progress-Werk Oberkirch AG since September 1, 2020 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer since September 5, 2020. He serves as Global Head of...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Insufficient data to establish whether Carlo's total compensation is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in the German market.

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Carlo's compensation with company performance.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PWO's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: PWO's board of directors are considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/14 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31