Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Novem Group S.A. (ETR:NVM) After Its First-Quarter Report

Last week, you might have seen that Novem Group S.A. (ETR:NVM) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.0% to €3.85 in the past week. Revenues came in 4.5% below expectations, at €129m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of €0.26 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Novem Group's sole analyst currently expect revenues in 2026 to be €525.0m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 3.9% to €0.55 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of €551.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.58 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Novem Group

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €12.60 price target, showing that the analyst doesn't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2026 compared to the historical decline of 8.7% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analyst also expect Novem Group to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at €12.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price target.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Novem Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for Novem Group going out as far as 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Novem Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.