Stock Analysis
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, hGears AG (ETR:HGEA) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for hGears
What Is hGears's Debt?
As you can see below, hGears had €19.2m of debt at June 2024, down from €20.0m a year prior. However, its balance sheet shows it holds €21.7m in cash, so it actually has €2.50m net cash.
How Strong Is hGears' Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that hGears had liabilities of €37.2m falling due within a year, and liabilities of €21.0m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had €21.7m in cash and €11.9m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling €24.5m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of €22.6m, we think shareholders really should watch hGears's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price. Given that hGears has more cash than debt, we're pretty confident it can handle its debt, despite the fact that it has a lot of liabilities in total. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if hGears can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
In the last year hGears had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 13%, to €107m. That's not what we would hope to see.
So How Risky Is hGears?
Although hGears had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last twelve months, it generated positive free cash flow of €2.8m. So although it is loss-making, it doesn't seem to have too much near-term balance sheet risk, keeping in mind the net cash. Given the lack of transparency around future revenue (and cashflow), we're nervous about this one, until it makes its first big sales. To us, it is a high risk play. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with hGears , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About XTRA:HGEA
hGears
Develops, manufactures, distributes, and supplies precision components and sub-systems, and system solutions worldwide.