Harley-Davidson, Inc.

XTRA:HAR Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.0b

Harley-Davidson Valuation

Is HAR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HAR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HAR (€31.96) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€29.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HAR is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HAR?

Key metric: As HAR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HAR. This is calculated by dividing HAR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HAR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.2x
EarningsUS$598.06m
Market CapUS$4.26b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HAR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HAR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.4x
SHA0 Schaeffler
29.2x73.1%€4.2b
PAH3 Porsche Automobil Holding
2.7x18.5%€10.4b
HLE HELLA GmbH KGaA
29.2x17.1%€9.6b
CON Continental
12.4x23.4%€12.3b
HAR Harley-Davidson
7.2x2.5%€4.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the peer average (18.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HAR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAR 7.2xIndustry Avg. 15.9xNo. of Companies13PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the Global Auto industry average (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HAR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HAR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.2x
Fair PE Ratio6.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HAR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HAR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€31.96
€35.84
+12.1%
8.1%€38.11€30.01n/a9
Nov ’25€29.36
€35.30
+20.2%
7.8%€36.99€29.13n/a9
Oct ’25€34.36
€38.09
+10.9%
11.2%€45.02€30.16n/a8
Sep ’25€33.90
€37.58
+10.9%
11.7%€44.68€29.93n/a8
Aug ’25€35.01
€39.15
+11.8%
10.7%€46.34€33.36n/a8
Jul ’25€30.78
€39.28
+27.6%
12.3%€47.20€31.47n/a9
Jun ’25€32.83
€39.71
+21.0%
11.5%€47.47€33.51n/a9
May ’25€32.43
€40.57
+25.1%
11.1%€47.78€33.72n/a10
Apr ’25€40.62
€40.63
+0.04%
11.8%€50.78€34.16n/a10
Mar ’25€33.04
€39.75
+20.3%
10.0%€46.10€34.11n/a9
Feb ’25€30.35
€37.67
+24.1%
14.0%€46.00€26.68n/a9
Jan ’25€33.57
€36.93
+10.0%
13.8%€45.72€26.52n/a9
Dec ’24€28.12
€36.45
+29.6%
16.8%€46.80€27.14n/a9
Nov ’24€25.23
€39.09
+54.9%
10.8%€47.10€31.08€29.369
Oct ’24€31.57
€43.12
+36.6%
12.4%€51.25€32.61€34.369
Sep ’24€31.54
€42.59
+35.0%
10.2%€50.02€36.38€33.909
Aug ’24€35.28
€42.59
+20.7%
10.2%€50.02€36.38€35.019
Jul ’24€32.21
€41.52
+28.9%
13.2%€51.89€32.77€30.789
Jun ’24€29.34
€43.56
+48.5%
14.0%€52.52€34.09€32.839
May ’24€32.51
€44.30
+36.3%
11.5%€51.73€35.39€32.438
Apr ’24€34.88
€48.33
+38.6%
10.0%€59.96€43.36€40.629
Mar ’24€44.68
€48.82
+9.3%
12.7%€61.44€36.86€33.0410
Feb ’24€41.62
€44.34
+6.5%
12.3%€55.19€35.88€30.3510
Jan ’24€37.88
€45.04
+18.9%
12.4%€56.62€36.80€33.5711
Dec ’23€45.06
€45.10
+0.09%
13.3%€57.68€37.49€28.1211
Nov ’23€44.54
€46.66
+4.8%
14.5%€60.73€40.49€25.2310

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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