Stock Analysis

We Wouldn't Be Too Quick To Buy Petrolina (Holdings) Public Ltd (CSE:PHL) Before It Goes Ex-Dividend

CSE:PHL
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It looks like Petrolina (Holdings) Public Ltd (CSE:PHL) is about to go ex-dividend in the next four days. The ex-dividend date is usually set to be one business day before the record date which is the cut-off date on which you must be present on the company's books as a shareholder in order to receive the dividend. The ex-dividend date is important because any transaction on a stock needs to have been settled before the record date in order to be eligible for a dividend. Therefore, if you purchase Petrolina (Holdings)'s shares on or after the 14th of July, you won't be eligible to receive the dividend, when it is paid on the 9th of August.

The company's next dividend payment will be €0.017 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed €0.057 to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, Petrolina (Holdings) has a trailing yield of 4.5% on the current stock price of €1.15. If you buy this business for its dividend, you should have an idea of whether Petrolina (Holdings)'s dividend is reliable and sustainable. We need to see whether the dividend is covered by earnings and if it's growing.

See our latest analysis for Petrolina (Holdings)

Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. Petrolina (Holdings) distributed an unsustainably high 160% of its profit as dividends to shareholders last year. Without extenuating circumstances, we'd consider the dividend at risk of a cut. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. Over the last year, it paid out more than three-quarters (89%) of its free cash flow generated, which is fairly high and may be starting to limit reinvestment in the business.

It's disappointing to see that the dividend was not covered by profits, but cash is more important from a dividend sustainability perspective, and Petrolina (Holdings) fortunately did generate enough cash to fund its dividend. Still, if the company repeatedly paid a dividend greater than its profits, we'd be concerned. Extraordinarily few companies are capable of persistently paying a dividend that is greater than their profits.

Click here to see how much of its profit Petrolina (Holdings) paid out over the last 12 months.

historic-dividend
CSE:PHL Historic Dividend July 9th 2023

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

When earnings decline, dividend companies become much harder to analyse and own safely. If business enters a downturn and the dividend is cut, the company could see its value fall precipitously. Readers will understand then, why we're concerned to see Petrolina (Holdings)'s earnings per share have dropped 7.3% a year over the past five years. When earnings per share fall, the maximum amount of dividends that can be paid also falls.

The main way most investors will assess a company's dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. It looks like the Petrolina (Holdings) dividends are largely the same as they were 10 years ago. When earnings are declining yet the dividends are flat, typically the company is either paying out a higher portion of its earnings, or paying out of cash or debt on the balance sheet, neither of which is ideal.

To Sum It Up

Should investors buy Petrolina (Holdings) for the upcoming dividend? It's never fun to see a company's earnings per share in retreat. Worse, Petrolina (Holdings)'s paying out a majority of its earnings and more than half its free cash flow. Positive cash flows are good news but it's not a good combination. It's not an attractive combination from a dividend perspective, and we're inclined to pass on this one for the time being.

With that being said, if you're still considering Petrolina (Holdings) as an investment, you'll find it beneficial to know what risks this stock is facing. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Petrolina (Holdings) (including 2 which make us uncomfortable).

A common investing mistake is buying the first interesting stock you see. Here you can find a full list of high-yield dividend stocks.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Petrolina (Holdings) is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.