Bancolombia (BVC:BCOLOMBIA) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of BCOLOMBIA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BCOLOMBIA (COP36500) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (COP52733.43)

BCOLOMBIA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	4/6

BCOLOMBIA Stock Overview

Bancolombia S.A. provides banking products and services in Colombia, Panama, Puerto Rico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Guatemala.

Rewards

Trading at 30.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 9.55% per year

Earnings grew by 993.2% over the past year

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Unstable dividend track record

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Bancolombia Competitors

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores

BVC:GRUPOAVAL

Col$19.5t

Banco de Bogotá

BVC:BOGOTA

Col$16.5t

Banco Davivienda

BVC:PFDAVVNDA

Col$15.3t

Grupo Bolívar

BVC:GRUBOLIVAR

Col$5.5t

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Bancolombia
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	Col$36,500.00
52 Week High	Col$45,700.00
52 Week Low	Col$25,700.00
Beta	1
1 Month Change	-16.95%
3 Month Change	-12.68%
1 Year Change	38.47%
3 Year Change	-5.20%
5 Year Change	13.71%
Change since IPO	835.88%

Shareholder Returns

	BCOLOMBIA	CO Banks	CO Market
7D	-5.2%	-5.6%	-8.5%
1Y	38.5%	-1.3%	-4.3%

Return vs Industry: BCOLOMBIA exceeded the CO Banks industry which returned -1.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BCOLOMBIA exceeded the CO Market which returned -4.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BCOLOMBIA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BCOLOMBIA volatility
BCOLOMBIA Average Weekly Movement	7.0%
Banks Industry Average Movement	5.9%
Market Average Movement	5.9%
10% most volatile stocks in CO Market	7.7%
10% least volatile stocks in CO Market	3.5%

Stable Share Price: BCOLOMBIA is more volatile than 75% of CO stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BCOLOMBIA's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of CO stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1945	31,076	Juan Carlos Mora Uribe	https://www.grupobancolombia.com

Bancolombia S.A. provides banking products and services in Colombia, Panama, Puerto Rico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Guatemala. The company operates through nine segments: Banking Colombia, Banking Panama, Banking El Salvador, Banking Guatemala, Trust, Investment Banking, Brokerage, International Banking, and All Other. It offers checking and savings accounts, fixed term deposits, and investment products; trade financing, loans funded by domestic development banks, working capital loans, credit cards, personal and vehicle loans, payroll loans, and overdrafts; financial support to real estate developers and mortgages for individuals and companies; factoring; and financial and operating leasing services.

Bancolombia Fundamentals Summary

How do Bancolombia's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BCOLOMBIA fundamental statistics
Market Cap	Col$33.95t
Earnings (TTM)	Col$5.28t
Revenue (TTM)	Col$17.38t

6.7x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/B Ratio

Is BCOLOMBIA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BCOLOMBIA income statement (TTM)
Revenue	Col$17.38t
Cost of Revenue	Col$15.83b
Gross Profit	Col$17.36t
Other Expenses	Col$12.09t
Earnings	Col$5.28t

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 02, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.49k
Gross Margin	99.91%
Net Profit Margin	30.36%
Debt/Equity Ratio	104.1%

How did BCOLOMBIA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

8.5%

Current Dividend Yield

57%

Payout Ratio

Does BCOLOMBIA pay a reliable dividends?

See BCOLOMBIA dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy BCOLOMBIA by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Bancolombia dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Sep 27 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Oct 03 2022
Days until Ex dividend	90 days
Days until Dividend pay date	96 days

Does BCOLOMBIA pay a reliable dividends?

See BCOLOMBIA dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BCOLOMBIA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BCOLOMBIA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BCOLOMBIA. This is calculated by dividing BCOLOMBIA's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BCOLOMBIA's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	Col$33.95t

BCOLOMBIA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BCOLOMBIA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

BCOLOMBIA PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for BCOLOMBIA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	5.5x
GRUPOAVAL Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores	4.9x	-7.9%	Col$19.5t
BOGOTA Banco de Bogotá	3x	n/a	Col$16.5t
PFDAVVNDA Banco Davivienda	9.3x	14.5%	Col$15.3t
GRUBOLIVAR Grupo Bolívar	5x	n/a	Col$5.5t
BCOLOMBIA Bancolombia	6.7x	5.1%	Col$34.0t

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BCOLOMBIA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the peer average (5.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BCOLOMBIA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BCOLOMBIA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the CO Banks industry average (5.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BCOLOMBIA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BCOLOMBIA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.7x
Fair PE Ratio	9.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BCOLOMBIA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BCOLOMBIA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BCOLOMBIA (COP36500) is trading below our estimate of fair value (COP52733.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BCOLOMBIA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: BCOLOMBIA is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.3x)

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Future Growth

How is Bancolombia forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

5.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BCOLOMBIA's forecast earnings growth (5.1% per year) is below the savings rate (6.4%).

Earnings vs Market: BCOLOMBIA's earnings (5.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the CO market (-0.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BCOLOMBIA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BCOLOMBIA's revenue (9.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the CO market (0.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BCOLOMBIA's revenue (9.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BCOLOMBIA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.5%).

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Past Performance

How has Bancolombia performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-1.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BCOLOMBIA has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BCOLOMBIA's current net profit margins (30.4%) are higher than last year (5.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BCOLOMBIA's earnings have declined by 1.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BCOLOMBIA's earnings growth over the past year (993.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (-1.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: BCOLOMBIA earnings growth over the past year (993.2%) exceeded the Banks industry 119.1%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: BCOLOMBIA's Return on Equity (17.1%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Bancolombia's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: BCOLOMBIA's Assets to Equity ratio (9.1x) is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: BCOLOMBIA has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (101%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 81% of BCOLOMBIA's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: BCOLOMBIA has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (71%).

Low Risk Deposits: BCOLOMBIA's Loans to Deposits ratio (98%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: BCOLOMBIA has a high level of bad loans (6.7%).

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Dividend

What is Bancolombia current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

8.55%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: BCOLOMBIA's dividend (8.55%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the CO market (3.49%).

High Dividend: BCOLOMBIA's dividend (8.55%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the CO market (11.19%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: BCOLOMBIA's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: BCOLOMBIA's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (56.9%), BCOLOMBIA's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: BCOLOMBIA's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (49.5% payout ratio).

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Juan Carlos Mora Uribe (56 yo)

6.08yrs

Tenure

Mr. Juan Carlos Mora Uribe has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Bancolombia S.a. since May 1, 2016. Mr. Uribe serves as Chief Innovation and Digital Transformation Officer at Bancolombia S...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BCOLOMBIA's management team is considered experienced (2.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: BCOLOMBIA's board of directors are considered experienced (6.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/28 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/28 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31