Anhui Expressway (XSSC:600012) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 600012 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

600012 (CN¥7.03) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥21.24)

600012 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	6/6

600012 Stock Overview

Anhui Expressway Company Limited constructs, operates, manages, and develops toll roads and associated service sections in Anhui province, the People's Republic of China.

Rewards

Trading at 66.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 9.13% per year

Earnings grew by 20.4% over the past year

Pays a high and reliable dividend of 10.33%

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for 600012 from our risk checks.

Anhui Expressway Competitors

Shenzhen Yan Tian Port HoldingsLtd

SZSE:000088

CN¥11.4b

Jiangxi Ganyue ExpresswayLTD

SHSE:600269

CN¥8.3b

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development

SZSE:200429

HK$17.0b

Shanxi Road & BridgeLtd

SZSE:000755

CN¥12.8b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Anhui Expressway
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$7.03
52 Week High	HK$8.70
52 Week Low	HK$5.52
Beta	0.61
1 Month Change	-3.96%
3 Month Change	-1.13%
1 Year Change	16.97%
3 Year Change	19.36%
5 Year Change	-44.91%
Change since IPO	34.93%

Shareholder Returns

	600012	CN Infrastructure	CN Market
7D	-8.1%	2.1%	1.3%
1Y	17.0%	8.9%	-11.2%

Return vs Industry: 600012 exceeded the CN Infrastructure industry which returned 8.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 600012 exceeded the CN Market which returned -11.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 600012's price volatile compared to industry and market?
600012 volatility
600012 Average Weekly Movement	4.1%
Infrastructure Industry Average Movement	4.9%
Market Average Movement	6.5%
10% most volatile stocks in CN Market	9.6%
10% least volatile stocks in CN Market	4.4%

Stable Share Price: 600012 is less volatile than 75% of CN stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 600012's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1996	2,058	Wensheng Tao	https://www.anhui-expressway.net

Anhui Expressway Company Limited constructs, operates, manages, and develops toll roads and associated service sections in Anhui province, the People's Republic of China. The company owns interests in the Hening Expressway, New Tianchang Section of National Trunk 205, Gaojie Expressway, Xuanguang Expressway, Lianhuo Expressway Anhui Section, Ningxuanhang Expressway Tianchang Section, Guangci Expressway, Ningxuanhang Expressway, Anquing Yangtze River Expressway Bridge, and Yuewu Expressway Anhui section. It also provides pawn loan services.

Anhui Expressway Fundamentals Summary

How do Anhui Expressway's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
600012 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥10.77b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥1.54b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥3.92b

5.6x

P/E Ratio

2.2x

P/S Ratio

Is 600012 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
600012 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥3.92b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥1.57b
Gross Profit	CN¥2.35b
Other Expenses	CN¥810.30m
Earnings	CN¥1.54b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.93
Gross Margin	59.86%
Net Profit Margin	39.21%
Debt/Equity Ratio	49.1%

How did 600012 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

10.3%

Current Dividend Yield

59%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 600012 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 600012?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 600012. This is calculated by dividing 600012's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 600012's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥10.77b

600012 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	4.3x
PEG Ratio	0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 600012's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

600012 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 600012 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	17.5x
000088 Shenzhen Yan Tian Port HoldingsLtd	24.8x	n/a	CN¥11.4b
600269 Jiangxi Ganyue ExpresswayLTD	7.9x	n/a	CN¥8.3b
200429 Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development	6x	3.7%	HK$17.0b
000755 Shanxi Road & BridgeLtd	31.3x	n/a	CN¥12.8b
600012 Anhui Expressway	5.6x	9.1%	CN¥12.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 600012 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the peer average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 600012's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Infrastructure Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 600012 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the CN Infrastructure industry average (14.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 600012's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

600012 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	5.6x
Fair PE Ratio	15.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 600012 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 600012 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 600012 (CN¥7.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥21.24)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 600012 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Anhui Expressway forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

9.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 600012's forecast earnings growth (9.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.2%).

Earnings vs Market: 600012's earnings (9.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the CN market (24.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 600012's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 600012's revenue (6.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the CN market (17.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 600012's revenue (6.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 600012's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.3%).

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Past Performance

How has Anhui Expressway performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

6.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 600012 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 600012's current net profit margins (39.2%) are higher than last year (35.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 600012's earnings have grown by 6.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 600012's earnings growth over the past year (20.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (6.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 600012 earnings growth over the past year (20.4%) exceeded the Infrastructure industry 6.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 600012's Return on Equity (12.4%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Anhui Expressway's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 600012's short term assets (CN¥4.8B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥1.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: 600012's short term assets (CN¥4.8B) do not cover its long term liabilities (CN¥5.8B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 600012's net debt to equity ratio (12.6%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: 600012's debt to equity ratio has increased from 29% to 49.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 600012's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (34.2%).

Interest Coverage: 600012's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (27.6x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Anhui Expressway current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

6/6

Dividend Score 6/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

10.33%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 600012's dividend (10.33%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (0.47%).

High Dividend: 600012's dividend (10.33%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (1.92%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 600012's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 600012's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (59.3%), 600012's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (48.7%), 600012's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Wensheng Tao (52 yo)

1.08yrs

Tenure

CN¥319,932

Compensation

Mr. Wensheng Tao serves as General Manager at Anhui Expressway Company Limited since June 11, 2021 and serves as its Executive Director since July 16, 2021. He holds a postgraduate degree and is a senior e...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Wensheng's total compensation ($USD47.39K) is below average for companies of similar size in the CN market ($USD222.88K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Wensheng's compensation with company performance.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 600012's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: 600012's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/22 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31