China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology HoldingsLtd Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 001965 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

001965 (CN¥11.72) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥16.36)

Is 001965 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 001965 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 001965 (CN¥11.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥16.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 001965 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 001965?

Key metric: As 001965 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 001965. This is calculated by dividing 001965's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 001965's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	12.2x
Earnings	CN¥6.56b
Market Cap	CN¥79.93b

001965 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	12.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	24.8x
PEG Ratio	14.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 001965's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 001965 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	15.2x
600350 Shandong Hi-speed	14.1x	8.8%	CN¥44.3b
000088 Shenzhen Yan Tian Port HoldingsLtd	21.9x	n/a	CN¥25.5b
000429 Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development	15x	1.6%	CN¥22.8b
600269 Jiangxi Ganyue ExpresswayLTD	9.9x	n/a	CN¥12.3b
001965 China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology HoldingsLtd	12.2x	0.8%	CN¥79.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 001965 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the peer average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 001965's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Infrastructure Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies available in this PE range

0 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 001965 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the CN Infrastructure industry average (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 001965's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

001965 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	12.2x
Fair PE Ratio	16.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 001965 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 001965 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥11.72	CN¥13.51 +15.2%	3.0%	CN¥14.00	CN¥13.00	n/a	3
Nov ’25	CN¥11.94	CN¥13.51 +13.1%	3.0%	CN¥14.00	CN¥13.00	n/a	3
Oct ’25	CN¥12.59	CN¥13.51 +7.3%	3.0%	CN¥14.00	CN¥13.00	n/a	3
Sep ’25	CN¥12.04	CN¥13.51 +12.2%	3.0%	CN¥14.00	CN¥13.00	n/a	3
Aug ’25	CN¥12.76	CN¥13.43 +5.2%	3.8%	CN¥14.00	CN¥12.76	n/a	3
Jul ’25	CN¥12.11	CN¥13.43 +10.9%	3.8%	CN¥14.00	CN¥12.76	n/a	3
Jun ’25	CN¥11.75	CN¥13.43 +14.3%	3.8%	CN¥14.00	CN¥12.76	n/a	3
May ’25	CN¥11.08	CN¥13.14 +18.6%	2.9%	CN¥13.52	CN¥12.76	n/a	2
Apr ’25	CN¥11.09	CN¥10.75 -3.1%	5.4%	CN¥11.55	CN¥10.21	n/a	3
Mar ’25	CN¥10.56	CN¥10.75 +1.8%	5.4%	CN¥11.55	CN¥10.21	n/a	3
Feb ’25	CN¥10.21	CN¥10.75 +5.2%	5.4%	CN¥11.55	CN¥10.21	n/a	3
Jan ’25	CN¥9.77	CN¥10.75 +10.0%	5.4%	CN¥11.55	CN¥10.21	n/a	3
Dec ’24	CN¥9.70	CN¥10.56 +8.8%	3.0%	CN¥10.98	CN¥10.21	n/a	3
Nov ’24	CN¥9.27	CN¥10.54 +13.6%	3.1%	CN¥10.98	CN¥10.21	CN¥11.94	3
Oct ’24	CN¥9.65	CN¥10.11 +4.7%	0.7%	CN¥10.21	CN¥10.03	CN¥12.59	3
Sep ’24	CN¥9.85	CN¥10.11 +2.6%	0.7%	CN¥10.21	CN¥10.03	CN¥12.04	3
Aug ’24	CN¥9.18	CN¥10.05 +9.5%	0.4%	CN¥10.09	CN¥10.01	CN¥12.76	2
Jul ’24	CN¥9.60	CN¥10.05 +4.7%	0.4%	CN¥10.09	CN¥10.01	CN¥12.11	2
Jun ’24	CN¥9.21	CN¥10.05 +9.1%	0.4%	CN¥10.09	CN¥10.01	CN¥11.75	2
May ’24	CN¥9.18	CN¥9.90 +7.8%	1.2%	CN¥10.01	CN¥9.78	CN¥11.08	2
Apr ’24	CN¥8.47	CN¥8.83 +4.3%	0.7%	CN¥8.89	CN¥8.77	CN¥11.09	2
Mar ’24	CN¥8.47	CN¥8.83 +4.3%	0.7%	CN¥8.89	CN¥8.77	CN¥10.56	2
Feb ’24	CN¥7.89	CN¥8.83 +11.9%	0.7%	CN¥8.89	CN¥8.77	CN¥10.21	2
Jan ’24	CN¥7.77	CN¥8.83 +13.6%	0.7%	CN¥8.89	CN¥8.77	CN¥9.77	2
Dec ’23	CN¥7.81	CN¥8.83 +13.1%	0.7%	CN¥8.89	CN¥8.77	CN¥9.70	2
Nov ’23	CN¥7.67	CN¥8.83 +15.1%	0.7%	CN¥8.89	CN¥8.77	CN¥9.27	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.