Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 000429 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

000429 (CN¥11.8) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥12.35)

Is 000429 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 000429 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 000429 (CN¥11.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥12.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 000429 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 000429?

Key metric: As 000429 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 000429. This is calculated by dividing 000429's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 000429's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	15.1x
Earnings	CN¥1.63b
Market Cap	CN¥22.87b

000429 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	6.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7.3x
PEG Ratio	9.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 000429's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 000429 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	21.9x
000088 Shenzhen Yan Tian Port HoldingsLtd	22.4x	n/a	CN¥26.0b
000927 China Railway Materials	35.8x	n/a	CN¥17.1b
000828 Dongguan Development (Holdings)	19.5x	n/a	CN¥11.5b
600269 Jiangxi Ganyue ExpresswayLTD	10.1x	n/a	CN¥12.6b
000429 Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development	15.1x	1.6%	CN¥23.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 000429 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the peer average (21.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 000429's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Infrastructure Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies available in this PE range

0 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 000429 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the CN Infrastructure industry average (16x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 000429's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

000429 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.1x
Fair PE Ratio	14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 000429 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 000429 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥11.80	CN¥13.15 +11.4%	4.6%	CN¥13.76	CN¥12.54	n/a	2
Nov ’25	CN¥10.97	CN¥13.15 +19.9%	4.6%	CN¥13.76	CN¥12.54	n/a	2
Oct ’25	CN¥11.38	CN¥11.56 +1.5%	4.5%	CN¥12.07	CN¥11.04	n/a	2
Sep ’25	CN¥11.04	CN¥11.56 +4.7%	4.5%	CN¥12.07	CN¥11.04	n/a	2
Mar ’25	CN¥9.62	CN¥9.88 +2.7%	2.8%	CN¥10.16	CN¥9.60	n/a	2
Feb ’25	CN¥9.15	CN¥9.88 +8.0%	2.8%	CN¥10.16	CN¥9.60	n/a	2
Jan ’25	CN¥8.46	CN¥9.86 +16.5%	2.6%	CN¥10.12	CN¥9.60	n/a	2
Dec ’24	CN¥8.10	CN¥9.86 +21.7%	2.6%	CN¥10.12	CN¥9.60	n/a	2
Nov ’24	CN¥8.11	CN¥9.86 +21.6%	2.6%	CN¥10.12	CN¥9.60	CN¥10.97	2
Oct ’24	CN¥8.38	CN¥9.40 +12.1%	6.1%	CN¥9.97	CN¥8.82	CN¥11.38	2
Sep ’24	CN¥7.87	CN¥9.40 +19.4%	6.1%	CN¥9.97	CN¥8.82	CN¥11.04	2
Aug ’24	CN¥7.61	CN¥8.94 +17.5%	1.3%	CN¥9.06	CN¥8.82	CN¥11.18	2
Jul ’24	CN¥7.84	CN¥8.94 +14.0%	1.3%	CN¥9.06	CN¥8.82	CN¥10.48	2
Jun ’24	CN¥7.90	CN¥8.94 +13.2%	1.3%	CN¥9.06	CN¥8.82	CN¥10.18	2
May ’24	CN¥7.76	CN¥8.94 +15.2%	1.3%	CN¥9.06	CN¥8.82	CN¥10.26	2
Apr ’24	CN¥7.55	CN¥9.36 +24.0%	5.8%	CN¥9.90	CN¥8.82	CN¥9.95	2
Mar ’24	CN¥7.94	CN¥9.39 +18.2%	1.1%	CN¥9.49	CN¥9.28	CN¥9.62	2
Feb ’24	CN¥7.81	CN¥9.09 +16.4%	2.1%	CN¥9.28	CN¥8.90	CN¥9.15	2
Jan ’24	CN¥7.82	CN¥9.09 +16.2%	2.1%	CN¥9.28	CN¥8.90	CN¥8.46	2
Dec ’23	CN¥7.43	CN¥9.09 +22.3%	2.1%	CN¥9.28	CN¥8.90	CN¥8.10	2
Nov ’23	CN¥7.13	CN¥9.09 +27.5%	2.1%	CN¥9.28	CN¥8.90	CN¥8.11	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.