A Look At The Fair Value Of Sunyes Manufacturing (Zhejiang) Holding Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002388)

Key Insights

• Sunyes Manufacturing (Zhejiang) Holding's estimated fair value is CN¥4.58 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Sunyes Manufacturing (Zhejiang) Holding's CN¥3.94 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• Peers of Sunyes Manufacturing (Zhejiang) Holding are currently trading on average at a 1,165% premium

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Sunyes Manufacturing (Zhejiang) Holding Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002388) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Sunyes Manufacturing (Zhejiang) Holding

Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥110.4m	CN¥132.7m	CN¥152.6m	CN¥170.0m	CN¥185.0m	CN¥198.1m	CN¥209.7m	CN¥220.1m	CN¥229.7m	CN¥238.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 27.58%	Est @ 20.19%	Est @ 15.01%	Est @ 11.39%	Est @ 8.86%	Est @ 7.08%	Est @ 5.84%	Est @ 4.97%	Est @ 4.36%	Est @ 3.93%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 10%	CN¥100	CN¥109	CN¥114	CN¥115	CN¥114	CN¥111	CN¥106	CN¥101	CN¥95.8	CN¥90.4

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.1b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 10%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥239m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (10%– 2.9%) = CN¥3.4b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥3.4b÷ ( 1 + 10%)¹⁰= CN¥1.3b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥2.3b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥3.9, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sunyes Manufacturing (Zhejiang) Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.290. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Sunyes Manufacturing (Zhejiang) Holding, we've compiled three essential items you should assess:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Sunyes Manufacturing (Zhejiang) Holding has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.