Yangtze Optical Electronic's (SHSE:688143) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Lackluster Earnings

The market shrugged off Yangtze Optical Electronic Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:688143) weak earnings report. Despite the strength in the stock, we feel that investors should be cautious about some numbers in the earnings.

Check out our latest analysis for Yangtze Optical Electronic

Zooming In On Yangtze Optical Electronic's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Yangtze Optical Electronic has an accrual ratio of 0.31 for the year to September 2024. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥165m despite its profit of CN¥9.03m, mentioned above. We also note that Yangtze Optical Electronic's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥165m. Having said that it seems that a recent tax benefit and some unusual items have impacted its profit (and this its accrual ratio).

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Yangtze Optical Electronic's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥12m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that Yangtze Optical Electronic's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to September 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

An Unusual Tax Situation

Moving on from the accrual ratio, we note that Yangtze Optical Electronic profited from a tax benefit which contributed CN¥4.0m to profit. This is meaningful because companies usually pay tax rather than receive tax benefits. The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth.

Our Take On Yangtze Optical Electronic's Profit Performance

In conclusion, Yangtze Optical Electronic's weak accrual ratio suggests its statutory earnings have been inflated by the non-cash tax benefit and the boost it received from unusual items. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, Yangtze Optical Electronic's statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. To help with this, we've discovered 3 warning signs (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Yangtze Optical Electronic.

Our examination of Yangtze Optical Electronic has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.