Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688015) Stock Rockets 35% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688015) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 35% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 26% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, Traffic Control Technology's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 50.6x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 32x and even P/E's below 20x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Traffic Control Technology's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Traffic Control Technology

Keen to find out how analysts think Traffic Control Technology's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Traffic Control Technology's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 56%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 68% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 49% as estimated by the lone analyst watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 38% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we find it concerning that Traffic Control Technology is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Traffic Control Technology's P/E

Shares in Traffic Control Technology have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Traffic Control Technology's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings are highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Having said that, be aware Traffic Control Technology is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.