Qijing Machinery Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603677) On An Uptrend But Financial Prospects Look Pretty Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?

Most readers would already be aware that Qijing Machinery's (SHSE:603677) stock increased significantly by 19% over the past three months. We, however wanted to have a closer look at its key financial indicators as the markets usually pay for long-term fundamentals, and in this case, they don't look very promising. Specifically, we decided to study Qijing Machinery's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Qijing Machinery

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Qijing Machinery is:

4.9% = CN¥58m ÷ CN¥1.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CN¥1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made CN¥0.05 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Qijing Machinery's Earnings Growth And 4.9% ROE

On the face of it, Qijing Machinery's ROE is not much to talk about. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 6.3% either. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 2.2% seen by Qijing Machinery over the last five years is not surprising. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared Qijing Machinery's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 3.9% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Qijing Machinery is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Qijing Machinery Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Qijing Machinery has a high three-year median payout ratio of 56% (that is, it is retaining 44% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run. Our risks dashboard should have the 2 risks we have identified for Qijing Machinery.

Additionally, Qijing Machinery has paid dividends over a period of eight years, which means that the company's management is rather focused on keeping up its dividend payments, regardless of the shrinking earnings.

Conclusion

In total, we would have a hard think before deciding on any investment action concerning Qijing Machinery. Because the company is not reinvesting much into the business, and given the low ROE, it's not surprising to see the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. So far, we've only made a quick discussion around the company's earnings growth. So it may be worth checking this free detailed graph of Qijing Machinery's past earnings, as well as revenue and cash flows to get a deeper insight into the company's performance.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.