Glodon Company Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Glodon Company Limited (SZSE:002410) last week released its latest annual, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥6.2b revenue coming in 2.9% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.15 missed the mark badly, arriving some 36% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Glodon after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Glodon's 17 analysts is for revenues of CN¥6.37b in 2025. This reflects a credible 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 132% to CN¥0.35. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥6.78b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.41 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

View our latest analysis for Glodon

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥13.07 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Glodon analyst has a price target of CN¥17.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥9.10. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Glodon's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Glodon is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥13.07, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Glodon. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Glodon analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Glodon Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.