What Guomai Technologies, Inc.'s (SZSE:002093) 38% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Guomai Technologies, Inc. (SZSE:002093) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 38% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 21% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, Guomai Technologies may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 63.7x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 29x and even P/E's lower than 18x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Guomai Technologies has been doing very well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Guomai Technologies

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Guomai Technologies, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Guomai Technologies' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 44%. EPS has also lifted 5.3% in aggregate from three years ago, mostly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been respectable for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 41% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that Guomai Technologies is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Guomai Technologies' P/E

Guomai Technologies' P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Guomai Technologies revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Guomai Technologies that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.