Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) Following Its Earnings Miss

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) missed earnings with its latest interim results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (CN¥12b) coming in 32% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.47 fell 30% short. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for China Tourism Group Duty Free

After the latest results, the 30 analysts covering China Tourism Group Duty Free are now predicting revenues of CN¥71.2b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 17% to CN¥3.46. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥71.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.46 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CN¥82.02. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on China Tourism Group Duty Free, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥115 and the most bearish at CN¥65.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting China Tourism Group Duty Free's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 28% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.5% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that China Tourism Group Duty Free is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on China Tourism Group Duty Free. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple China Tourism Group Duty Free analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - China Tourism Group Duty Free has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.