Improved Earnings Required Before Orient International Enterprise, Ltd. (SHSE:600278) Stock's 26% Jump Looks Justified

The Orient International Enterprise, Ltd. (SHSE:600278) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 26%. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

Although its price has surged higher, Orient International Enterprise may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 24.7x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios greater than 30x and even P/E's higher than 58x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.

For example, consider that Orient International Enterprise's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Orient International Enterprise

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like Orient International Enterprise's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 15%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 37% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 36% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we are not surprised that Orient International Enterprise is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent earnings trends are already weighing down the shares.

What We Can Learn From Orient International Enterprise's P/E?

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Orient International Enterprise's P/E close to the market median. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of Orient International Enterprise revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term are contributing to its low P/E, given the market is set to grow. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Orient International Enterprise you should know about.

If you're unsure about the strength of Orient International Enterprise's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.