Benign Growth For Cosmos Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002133) Underpins Stock's 28% Plummet

Cosmos Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002133) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 28% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 26% in that time.

After such a large drop in price, Cosmos Group may be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.7x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios greater than 30x and even P/E's higher than 53x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Cosmos Group over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

View our latest analysis for Cosmos Group

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Cosmos Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Cosmos Group's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 52%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 18% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 41% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's understandable that Cosmos Group's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Final Word

The softening of Cosmos Group's shares means its P/E is now sitting at a pretty low level. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Cosmos Group maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its sliding earnings over the medium-term, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Cosmos Group (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.