Gemdale Corporation

SHSE:600383 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥24.3b

Gemdale Valuation

Is 600383 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 600383 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 600383 (CN¥5.31) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥9.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 600383 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 600383?

Key metric: As 600383 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 600383. This is calculated by dividing 600383's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 600383's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
SalesCN¥86.75b
Market CapCN¥24.33b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 600383's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 600383 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.4x
600848 Shanghai Lingang HoldingsLtd
3.5x10.7%CN¥26.9b
600675 China Enterprise
3.4xn/aCN¥18.1b
600177 Youngor Fashion
2.4x-11.2%CN¥36.0b
000069 Shenzhen Overseas Chinese TownLtd
0.4x-2.8%CN¥23.4b
600383 Gemdale
0.3x-23.1%CN¥24.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 600383 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (2.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 600383's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Real Estate Industry?

34 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.4x1.2%
600383 Gemdale
 0.3x-23.1%US$3.31b
600048 Poly Developments and Holdings Group
0.4x-2.6%US$16.48b
001979 China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings
0.6x0.2%US$13.79b
600383 0.3xIndustry Avg. 2.4xNo. of Companies34PS02.44.87.29.612+
34 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.4x38.3%
600383 Gemdale
 0.3x68.4%US$3.31b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 600383 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the CN Real Estate industry average (2.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 600383's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

600383 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 600383 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 600383 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥5.31
CN¥3.95
-25.5%
27.7%CN¥6.70CN¥3.10n/a8
Nov ’25CN¥6.13
CN¥3.94
-35.8%
26.7%CN¥6.55CN¥3.10n/a8
Oct ’25CN¥5.47
CN¥3.62
-33.8%
17.7%CN¥5.15CN¥3.10n/a8
Sep ’25CN¥3.52
CN¥3.53
+0.4%
10.9%CN¥4.30CN¥3.00n/a9
Aug ’25CN¥3.06
CN¥3.68
+20.2%
17.3%CN¥5.15CN¥3.00n/a9
Jul ’25CN¥3.64
CN¥3.83
+5.3%
17.8%CN¥5.15CN¥3.00n/a9
Jun ’25CN¥4.23
CN¥3.83
-9.4%
17.8%CN¥5.15CN¥3.00n/a9
May ’25CN¥3.98
CN¥3.90
-2.0%
18.5%CN¥5.15CN¥3.00n/a9
Apr ’25CN¥3.84
CN¥4.01
+4.3%
17.7%CN¥5.15CN¥3.00n/a9
Mar ’25CN¥4.27
CN¥5.08
+18.9%
36.0%CN¥9.54CN¥3.00n/a8
Feb ’25CN¥4.01
CN¥5.93
+47.8%
37.1%CN¥9.54CN¥3.00n/a8
Jan ’25CN¥4.36
CN¥7.60
+74.4%
21.8%CN¥9.54CN¥5.00n/a7
Dec ’24CN¥5.26
CN¥8.34
+58.5%
26.8%CN¥12.22CN¥5.00n/a10
Nov ’24CN¥5.08
CN¥8.34
+64.1%
26.8%CN¥12.22CN¥5.00CN¥6.1310
Oct ’24CN¥6.82
CN¥9.06
+32.8%
18.8%CN¥12.22CN¥6.60CN¥5.4710
Sep ’24CN¥7.38
CN¥9.42
+27.7%
21.9%CN¥12.93CN¥6.60CN¥3.5210
Aug ’24CN¥8.40
CN¥10.65
+26.8%
21.0%CN¥12.93CN¥6.60CN¥3.0610
Jul ’24CN¥7.21
CN¥10.65
+47.8%
21.0%CN¥12.93CN¥6.60CN¥3.6410
Jun ’24CN¥7.23
CN¥10.87
+50.4%
17.8%CN¥12.93CN¥6.60CN¥4.2310
May ’24CN¥8.16
CN¥12.17
+49.1%
24.4%CN¥16.00CN¥6.30CN¥3.988
Apr ’24CN¥8.40
CN¥12.17
+44.8%
24.4%CN¥16.00CN¥6.30CN¥3.848
Mar ’24CN¥9.83
CN¥12.17
+23.8%
24.4%CN¥16.00CN¥6.30CN¥4.278
Feb ’24CN¥9.82
CN¥11.89
+21.1%
25.2%CN¥16.00CN¥6.30CN¥4.018
Jan ’24CN¥10.23
CN¥12.73
+24.4%
21.2%CN¥16.00CN¥9.00CN¥4.368
Dec ’23CN¥11.76
CN¥12.57
+6.9%
20.7%CN¥16.00CN¥9.00CN¥5.268
Nov ’23CN¥7.97
CN¥12.34
+54.8%
20.7%CN¥16.00CN¥9.00CN¥5.088

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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