Earnings Not Telling The Story For Xinhuanet Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603888) After Shares Rise 35%

Xinhuanet Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603888) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 35% after a shaky period beforehand. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 22% is also fairly reasonable.

After such a large jump in price, Xinhuanet may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 56x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 29x and even P/E's lower than 18x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

The earnings growth achieved at Xinhuanet over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this respectable earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Xinhuanet

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Xinhuanet, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Xinhuanet's Growth Trending?

Xinhuanet's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 10%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 90% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 41% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that Xinhuanet is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Xinhuanet's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Xinhuanet revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 4 warning signs for Xinhuanet (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.