Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation Limited Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Last week, you might have seen that Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation Limited (SHSE:601928) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.9% to CN¥10.30 in the past week. Revenues of CN¥14b fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of CN¥1.16 an impressive 21% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media

Following the latest results, Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥14.4b in 2024. This would be a credible 5.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 38% to CN¥0.71 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥15.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.78 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 5.3% to CN¥12.30. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥13.00 and the most bearish at CN¥11.90 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.1% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media (1 is significant!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.