What Fanli Digital Technology Co.,Ltd's (SHSE:600228) 34% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Fanli Digital Technology Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600228) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 34% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 16% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, Fanli Digital TechnologyLtd may be sending strong sell signals at present with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 10.7x, when you consider almost half of the companies in the Interactive Media and Services industry in China have P/S ratios under 6.9x and even P/S lower than 3x aren't out of the ordinary. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

See our latest analysis for Fanli Digital TechnologyLtd

How Has Fanli Digital TechnologyLtd Performed Recently?

For instance, Fanli Digital TechnologyLtd's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Fanli Digital TechnologyLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Fanli Digital TechnologyLtd's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 30%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 31% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 14% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Fanli Digital TechnologyLtd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Fanli Digital TechnologyLtd's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Fanli Digital TechnologyLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Fanli Digital TechnologyLtd you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Fanli Digital TechnologyLtd, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.