Analysts Are Updating Their Tianqi Lithium Corporation (SZSE:002466) Estimates After Its Annual Results

Last week, you might have seen that Tianqi Lithium Corporation (SZSE:002466) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.9% to CN¥30.56 in the past week. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 32% toCN¥4.82 per share. Revenues of CN¥13b did beat expectations by 3.7%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Tianqi Lithium after the latest results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Tianqi Lithium's 21 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be CN¥13.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Tianqi Lithium forecast to report a statutory profit of CN¥1.21 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥13.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.47 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

See our latest analysis for Tianqi Lithium

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥35.75, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Tianqi Lithium's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Tianqi Lithium, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥55.00 and the most bearish at CN¥21.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Tianqi Lithium's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 37% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Tianqi Lithium is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥35.75, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Tianqi Lithium analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Tianqi Lithium's balance sheet, and whether we think Tianqi Lithium is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.