Stock Analysis

Even after rising 5.0% this past week, COFCO Biotechnology (SZSE:000930) shareholders are still down 39% over the past three years

SZSE:000930
Source: Shutterstock

COFCO Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000930) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 25% in the last quarter. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. Truth be told the share price declined 44% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

On a more encouraging note the company has added CN¥539m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.

See our latest analysis for COFCO Biotechnology

COFCO Biotechnology wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

In the last three years COFCO Biotechnology saw its revenue shrink by 5.3% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. The annual decline of 13% per year in that period has clearly disappointed holders. And with no profits, and weak revenue, are you surprised? Of course, sentiment could become too negative, and the company may actually be making progress to profitability.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:000930 Earnings and Revenue Growth December 2nd 2024

This free interactive report on COFCO Biotechnology's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered COFCO Biotechnology's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that COFCO Biotechnology's TSR, which was a 39% drop over the last 3 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

COFCO Biotechnology shareholders are down 11% for the year, but the market itself is up 7.8%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.4%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Shareholders might want to examine this detailed historical graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.