Stock Analysis

Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd (SZSE:000630) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

SZSE:000630
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David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000630) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd

What Is Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd's Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd had CN¥25.9b of debt, up from CN¥20.8b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥11.7b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥14.2b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:000630 Debt to Equity History September 20th 2024

How Strong Is Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd had liabilities of CN¥29.1b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥15.1b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥11.7b and CN¥8.75b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥23.8b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CN¥39.5b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.5 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its commanding EBIT of 11.0 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 37% cut to EBIT over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 64% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered cast it in a significantly better light. For example its interest cover was refreshing. We think that Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Tongling Nonferrous Metals GroupLtd might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.