Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd's (SHSE:688737) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem

Sinocat Environmental Technology Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688737) just reported some strong earnings, and the market reacted accordingly with a healthy uplift in the share price. However, our analysis suggests that shareholders may be missing some factors that indicate the earnings result was not as good as it looked.

See our latest analysis for Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd

Examining Cashflow Against Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd has an accrual ratio of 0.39 for the year to December 2023. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥431m despite its profit of CN¥42.3m, mentioned above. We also note that Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥431m. Having said that it seems that a recent tax benefit and some unusual items have impacted its profit (and this its accrual ratio).

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd's profit suffered from unusual items, which reduced profit by CN¥8.6m in the last twelve months. In the case where this was a non-cash charge it would have made it easier to have high cash conversion, so it's surprising that the accrual ratio tells a different story. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.

An Unusual Tax Situation

In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd received a tax benefit of CN¥5.6m. This is meaningful because companies usually pay tax rather than receive tax benefits. The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. And given that it lost money last year, it seems possible that the benefit is evidence that it now expects to find value in its past tax losses. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. Assuming the tax benefit is not repeated every year, we could see its profitability drop noticeably, all else being equal. So while we think it's great to receive a tax benefit, it does tend to imply an increased risk that the statutory profit overstates the sustainable earnings power of the business.

Our Take On Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd's Profit Performance

Summing up, Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd's unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings were temporarily depressed, while its tax benefit is having the opposite effect, and its accrual ratio indicates a lack of free cash flow relative to profit. After taking into account all the aforementioned observations we think that Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd's profits probably give a generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For example, we've found that Sinocat Environmental TechnologyLtd has 2 warning signs (1 can't be ignored!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.