Earnings Miss: Novoray Corporation Missed EPS By 8.5% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Novoray Corporation (SHSE:688300) missed earnings with its latest annual results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 3.3% short of analyst estimates at CN¥712m, and statutory earnings of CN¥0.94 per share missed forecasts by 8.5%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Novoray

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Novoray's four analysts is for revenues of CN¥903.0m in 2024. This reflects a huge 27% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 35% to CN¥1.26. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥930.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.36 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥55.00 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Novoray's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 27% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 21% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Novoray is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Novoray. They also downgraded Novoray's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Novoray going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Novoray you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.