What Cathay Biotech Inc.'s (SHSE:688065) 38% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Cathay Biotech Inc. (SHSE:688065) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 38% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 10% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, Cathay Biotech's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 71.1x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 32x and even P/E's below 19x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, Cathay Biotech's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Cathay Biotech

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Cathay Biotech's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 18%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 35% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 37% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Cathay Biotech's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Cathay Biotech's P/E

Cathay Biotech's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Cathay Biotech currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Cathay Biotech (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Cathay Biotech, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.