Stock Analysis

Yueyang Forest & Paper (SHSE:600963 shareholders incur further losses as stock declines 4.3% this week, taking three-year losses to 38%

SHSE:600963
Source: Shutterstock

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term Yueyang Forest & Paper Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600963) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 41% in three years, versus a market decline of about 20%. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 21% lower in that time.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

View our latest analysis for Yueyang Forest & Paper

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over the three years that the share price declined, Yueyang Forest & Paper's earnings per share (EPS) dropped significantly, falling to a loss. Extraordinary items contributed to this situation. Due to the loss, it's not easy to use EPS as a reliable guide to the business. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SHSE:600963 Earnings Per Share Growth May 25th 2024

This free interactive report on Yueyang Forest & Paper's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Yueyang Forest & Paper's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Yueyang Forest & Paper shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 38%, over the last 3 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Yueyang Forest & Paper shareholders are down 21% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 8.9%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Yueyang Forest & Paper has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Yueyang Forest & Paper is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.